Can You Really Win Sports Betting?
Scott Morris | April 26, 2024
Many folks automatically think that when you gamble, the house always wins. In a way, this is correct. This holds especially true for casino games where the odds aren’t good at all. But in sports betting, the odds are more in the gambler’s favor. In fact, if you are going to win in any form of gambling, sports betting is that form.
Of course there is a vig built into the bookie business model. Typically there is a 10% fee built into every $100 wagered. A bettor will risk $100 to win $100. If the bet wins, the bettor takes back his $110 and gets paid $100. If the bet loses, the bettor loses the $110. By this math a sports bettors needs to win 52.5% of his bets to break even. Everything above that number is profit.
Staying Away from Exotics
Parlays
Exotic bets are those where you get creative by match up multiple teams to win larger payouts. The most popular of these types of bets are parlays and teasers. Parlays are where you simply pick the winners against the spread (or game total) on 2 or more games, string them together, and the bet pays out exponentially. Most sportsbooks will accept up to at least 10 teams in a single parlay. Below are the standard odds payouts for parlays.
| Teams | Odds | IMPLIED PROBABILITY | TRUE PROBABILITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 13-5 | 27.40% | 25% |
| 3 | 6-1 | 14.35% | 12.50% |
| 4 | 12-1 | 7.53% | 6.25% |
| 5 | 25-1 | 3.94% | 3.13% |
| 6 | 46-1 | 2.07% | 1.56% |
| 7 | 90-1 | 1.08% | 0.78% |
| 8 | 170-1 | 0.57% | 0.39% |
| 9 | 330-1 | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 10 | 640-1 | 0.16% | 0.10% |
Teasers
Teasers are a whole other animal. This is essentially a parlay where you can move the spread in your favor for each leg. Of course, the odds aren’t as generous as a standard parlay. The standard teaser for football starts at 6 points. A lot of people prefer 7 point or 7.5 teasers for football and for obvious reasons. The points can be applied to sides or totals.
| 3 | 6 | 6½ | 7 | 7½ | 8 | 8½ | 9 | 9½ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 11 to 10 | 5 to 6 | 10 to 13 | 5 to 7 | 5 to 8 | 5 to 9 | 10 to 19 | 1 to 2 | 2 to 5 |
| 3 | 2 to 1 | 8 to 5 | 7 to 5 | 13 to 10 | 11 to 10 | 1 to 1 | 10 to 11 | 5 to 6 | 5 to 7 |
| 4 | 4 to 1 | 5 to 2 | 23 to 10 | 2 to 1 | 3 to 2 | 13 to 10 | 6 to 5 | 11 to 10 | 1 to 1 |
| 5 | 7 to 1 | 4 to 1 | 7 to 2 | 3 to 1 | 5 to 2 | 2 to 1 | 3 to 2 | 7 to 5 | 13 to 10 |
| 6 | 12 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 11 to 2 | 5 to 1 | 7 to 2 | 3 to 1 | 2 to 1 | 9 to 5 | 8 to 5 |
| 7 | 18 to 1 | 8 to 1 | 7 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 9 to 2 | 7 to 2 | 3 to 1 | 2 to 1 | 9 to 5 |
| 8 | 25 to 1 | 14 to 1 | 12 to 1 | 10 to 1 | 8 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 4 to 1 | 3 to 1 | 5 to 2 |
| 9 | 40 to 1 | 18 to 1 | 14 to 1 | 12 to 1 | 10 to 1 | 8 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 5 to 1 | 7 to 2 |
| 10 | 65 to 1 | 22 to 1 | 18 to 1 | 15 to 1 | 12 to 1 | 10 to 1 | 8 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 9 to 2 |
| 11 | 100 to 1 | 30 to 1 | 22 to 1 | 18 to 1 | 16 to 1 | 12 to 1 | 10 to 1 | 8 to 1 | 7 to 1 |
| 12 | 150 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 30 to 1 | 22 to 1 | 20 to 1 | 18 to 1 | 14 to 1 | 12 to 1 | 10 to 1 |
| 13 | 250 to 1 | 65 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 35 to 1 | 30 to 1 | 25 to 1 | 20 to 1 | 16 to 1 | 14 to 1 |
| 14 | 400 to 1 | 80 to 1 | 65 to 1 | 50 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 35 to 1 | 30 to 1 | 25 to 1 | 18 to 1 |
| 15 | 600 to 1 | 125 to 1 | 80 to 1 | 65 to 1 | 50 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 35 to 1 | 30 to 1 | 25 to 1 |
Even though these exotic plays may be enticing, they should be avoided. Sure, you may hit one here or there but in the long run you will lose more money betting these types of wagers than if you avoided them altogether.
Other types of exotics are players individual stat over-unders, coin tosses and even Gatorade color. Essentially, an “exotic” is anything outside of the standard side or total wager.
Bettors who only bet sides or totals have the best shot at winning in the long run. A good sports bettor picks and chooses his bets carefully and is willing to sit out days or even weeks to make sure he plays picks that he feels very confident in.
System Plays
A system is a particular way to bet a game based on historic stats. They have less to do with how you feel a team will play that week and more of how a particular team in that scenario has performed in the past. A decent system usually hits at about 59% long-term and can look something like this: NFL 7+ point underdog after large win (by 10+ points or more) at home. Or: Under is 62% with winds of 20 mph or more in college football night matchups in the MAC. These are just made up examples to give you an idea what a system play looks like.
Sports Betting Strategies
We have covered many sorts of well-known and lesser-known strategies over the years here at SBA. Some of the most used strategies are:
1-3-2-6 system
This is a system where the first bet you place is for one unit. Whether your 1 unit is $10, $100, $500, or $1000, you should base all of your bets on a unit system. This will help you manage your bankroll. This is something we will get into later in the article.
Anyway, if you win your first wager, then your next wager should be 3 units, then 2 units, then 6 units. The way this system works is that it allows you to capitalize off early wins and maximize your bets should you win four in a row. You would then start the process over.
Martingale system
This is a system which requires you to have a large starting bankroll. In this system you pick your wager amount and place a bet on a game you like. If it wins, you wager that same amount on your next pick. If you lose, however, you would place double the bet size on the next game. This system is controversial in that it resembles “chasing money”, something which is discouraged under normal circumstances. But if your bankroll is large enough you should be able to start over from scratch should you lose.
The system was named after John H. Martindale (not a typo). He was a casino owner in the 1800’s France who would lurk around his casino encouraging patrons to double their bets. The name got morphed into “Martingale” over time.
Paroli system
In this system, you increase your wager size after every win so that you maximize your streak. This way, no matter if you lose early or late, you lose a smaller amount and are never on the hook for a large loss.
For more on these betting systems click here
Chasing Money
This is the practice of trying to win back your last loss by betting double the amount you normally would. This can quickly get you into a hole if you are on a losing streak. It is highly advised that you avoid doing this as it is usually done on an emotional level and not done logically. The only exception to our advice to this is if you are employing the Martingale systems as mentioned above.
Bankroll Management
Establishing how much money you are able to risk on gambling before you start is a good idea. It will help put things into perspective as well as help you decide how much to wager on a game. If you have $100K to put towards your sports betting efforts, then a 1 unit play would be for $1000. In almost every system or scenario it is recommended that you never risk more than 6% of this bankroll on your largest wager no matter the circumstances.
Discipline is Key
Can sports betting be profitable? If you are into sports betting as a serious endeavor to win money, then you must stay disciplined. Only bet what you can afford to lose. Don’t bet on emotions or they will eat you up. We’ve been in the sports betting industry for 25 years and have known our share of guys who win much more than they lose. For every one of them there are three guys who basically break even and four guys who lose regularly.
Stay away from casino games. They offer the worst odds in the industry. Bet sports, bet smart, be patient and don’t bet with emotion. If you lose, look at it as part of the process and quit if you experience serious distress. Sports betting is not for everyone. It takes a certain personality type to stay focused and take both wins and losses with humility.
Learn More About Sports Betting:
Do Online Sportsbooks Ban Winners?
Using Advanced Techniques to Grow Your Bankroll
How Do Sportsbooks Make Money?
