NCAAB Championship Game Free Pick – UConn vs Purdue

It was a little over a year ago that Purdue entered the 2023 NCAA tournament and became just the second No. 1 seed to be embarrassed by a No. 16 seed in the first round of play. Fast forward and we have a Boilermakers team that is extremely focused on one thing – the 2024 national championship.

Standing in the way of that title is the defending champion, UConn. The Huskies defeated San Diego State rather easily in last year’s final. Tomorrow night’s matchup with Purdue will be a much tougher test for the NCAA tournament’s overall No. 1 seed.

UConn has won and covered all five of its tournament games so far. That includes four games in which the Huskies were double-digit favorites. UConn took care of fourth-seeded Alabama in Saturday’s Final Four matchup, but the task ahead seems much more daunting.

How Purdue Got Here

Almost immediately after last season, UConn was installed as the betting favorite to win it all again. Purdue was right behind the Huskies. Just prior to the 2023-24 regular season, Purdue was actually a +1150 favorite with UConn given +1650 odds. When the calendar turned to January, it was still Purdue (+850) ahead of the Huskies (+1250). 

Right before the tournament began, UConn was the favorite to win it all once again. The Huskies were given +375 odds compared to +700 for Purdue. Now, we head into the NCAA tournament final and we find UConn favored by 6.5 over the Boilermakers.

Purdue, like UConn, has won and covered all five of its tournament games so far. The key has been 7-4 center Zach Edey, the national player of the year for the second straight season. Edey broke David Robinson’s record with his sixth straight NCAA tournament game with at least 20 points and at least 10 rebounds. Edey had 20 points and 12 rebounds in the Boilermakers win over NC State in the semifinals.

Can UConn Go Back-to-Back?

No team has won back-to-back NCAA titles since Florida did it in 2006 and 2007. The Huskies have proven repeatedly they are capable. UConn has just three losses this season. One was to a Kansas team that was ranked No. 5 at the time. The Huskies lost Big East games at Seton Hall and at Creighton. 

The return of their big man, 7-2 center Donovan Clingan, marked a turning point for UConn this season. Clingan missed five games and returned in mid-January. UConn’s defense locked down on its opponents. They won nine straight and didn’t allow more than 65 points in a game. After the loss to Creighton, UConn has won 12 straight. They allowed St. John’s 90 and Alabama 72 and in the other ten games allowed more than 61 points just once.

UConn is a top-20 scoring team like Purdue, averaging 81.6 points per game. Defensively, they have been outstanding. They just held the nation’s top-scoring team to 72 points and their other four tournament opponents to under 60. Can the Huskies go back-to-back? With their combination of offense and defense, the answer would be a resounding yes.

Purdue-UConn – The Pick

UConn is a 6.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks. The total is currently at 145.5. That total should tell you something. In Final Four games, every single possession matters. Coaches want to get the most from every touch of the basketball. 

Teams tend to slow down and take care of the basketball. They don’t want to offer up any extra possessions for their opponent. That 145.5 means this is a game that should be like many over the last 10 years…close and in the 70s. 

Last year, UConn won 76-59 and covered easily as a 7-point favorite. In 2023, Kansas beat North Carolina 72-69 but failed to cover as a 4-point favorite. In 2019 and 2021, the final scores were 86-70 (Baylor beat Gonzaga) and 85-77 (Virginia over Texas Tech). In the three prior championship games, the final scores were 79-62, 71-65, and 77-74. 

The point is that even though both of these teams average in the 80s in scoring, this championship game is probably going to end up in the 70s. Purdue, which averages 82.9 points per game, has scored more than 80 points just once in its last 10 games. They are 9-1 SU and they’ve covered the last five in a row. 

Edey and Clingan can cancel each other out, so this game will likely come down to which team’s guards have the better game. Braden Smith, Lance Jones, and Foster Loyer each average in double figures for Purdue. Tristan Newton, Cam Spencer, Stephon Castle do the same for UConn and have better overall numbers.

It won’t matter. Purdue is averaging 64.9 possessions per game over their last three. UConn is at 67.2. The Boilermakers are 27-12 ATS this season and 11-1 ATS in neutral site games.