5 Teams That Can Pull Off a First Round Upset in March Madness

It’s March Madness! The name itself implies some craziness and most NCAA tournaments do not disappoint. All 68 teams that make the tourney have a shot at the 2024 national championship. It all starts with a first-round victory.

Even though teams seeded No. 13 and lower are essentially guaranteed to lose, at least one of those teams manages to win a game almost every year. There were three last March: No. 13 Furman, No. 15 Princeton, and Fairleigh Dickinson, which became the second No. 16 seed to win a first-round NCAA tournament game. A record four teams seeded 13 or lower, including No. 15 St. Peter’s, won a first-round game in the previous tournament.

With the exception of 2017, every NCAA tournament since 2007 has seen at least one first-round victory by a team seeded 13 or lower. During that span, there have been an average of two upset victories per tournament by teams seeded 13 or lower. 

Each year is different, though. The 2024 tournament is weaker at the No. 15 and 16 seeds because of the number of upsets in many of the mid-major conferences. Those upsets eliminated some of the best teams in those conferences. 

Still, history suggests that at least one team seeded 13 or lower is bound to pull off an upset. These teams will have a great opportunity to compete, possibly cover a point spread, and even pull off an outright first-round win.

MAC Champion Akron

Every year, the MAC is among the top conferences to support early in the NCAA Tournament. Nine of the previous 14 MAC teams to play in the tournament have either won in the opening game or lost by single digits. 

In fact, the MAC has recorded nine upset victories and eight losses by seven or fewer points in 26 games as a 12-, 13-, or 14-seed. That indicates at least a 65% probability of a close, competitive game.

Current Akron coach John Groce is responsible for a few of those upsets. He led Ohio, then a 14-seed, to a win in 2010 and then two years later took the Bobcats to the Sweet 16. With a top-10 defense and a slow style of play, the Zips are positioned to pull off a major upset.

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Charleston – CAA Champ

Formerly known as the Colonial Athletic Association, the new Coastal Athletic Association is 11-5-1 ATS since 2011. The league isn’t as strong as it was when teams like George Mason and VCU were around, but Charleston is no stranger to the Big Dance.

Last year, Charleston lost to eventual runner-up San Diego State by just six points. The Cougars are back this year with an offense that ranks in the top-60 according to KenPom. The defense isn’t as strong as last year, but Charleston has won its last 12 games of the season  with an offense that scored 80-plus in all but four of those games. The Cougars will face an Alabama team that could be looking ahead.

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Patriot League Winner – Colgate

The Patriot League has produced some of the more memorable upsets in the NCAA tournament. No. 15 Lehigh beat Duke in 2012 and No. 14 Bucknell upset Kansas in 2005. With only one other tournament victory, the Patriot League is just 3-30 lifetime. 

That might not sound like much, but Patriot League entrants in the tournament have lost by four, six, seven, and seven points in the last six years of March Madness. Colgate was one of those losses, but they have also been blown out twice. This is the Red Raiders fourth straight trip to the Big Dance. 

Colgate went 16-2 in league play. They were blown out by Arizona and Illinois, but suffered a close loss at Syracuse and won at Vermont. This year’s Red Raiders are much better than a year ago on defense. If they can’t pull the upset, Colgate may be able to cover the 14-point spread in its first-round game against Baylor.

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No. 14 Morehead St.

Although the Ohio Valley has never advanced to the Sweet 16, it has a history of pulling off significant upsets. In 2011, Morehead St. defeated Louisville as the 13th seed, and Murray State triumphed as the 13th and 12th seeds in the same decade.

Morehead State prepared for this by packing a schedule full of the likes of Alabama, Purdue, and Indiana. The offense and defense both rank in KenPom’s top-125. Baylor could be in for a surprise.

Oakland University

When Butler left the Horizon League, it took all the upsets with it. Since, Horizon League teams have gone 0-11 and have lost NCAA tournament games by an average of nearly 17 points per game. 

This year’s conference champ, Oakland, might be in line to change that. The Grizzlies played a tough schedule that included Ohio State, Michigan State, and Illinois from the Big Ten as well as tournament teams like Dayton and Drake. 

Head coach Greg Kampe is in his 40th season of coaching. He’s the most tenured Division I men’s coach in the game and if anyone could outcoach his opponent, it would be Kampe.