NCAAB No. 2 Houston at No. 11 Baylor Free Pick

There’s nothing bigger in the Big 12 than the second-ranked Houston Cougars (23-3, 10-3 conference) visiting the No. 11 Baylor Bears (19-7, 8-5) Saturday afternoon.

Game time in Waco is High Noon ET. 

This is the first season the Houston Cougars have been a member of the conference, and they’re taking no prisoners. Houston has won its last four, including a 73-65 home victory over the Iowa St. Cyclones this past Monday. Jamal Shead (26 points) and Emanual Sharp (20) led the way in a defensive struggle where both teams shot poorly throughout (Cyclones 41.8 percent, Cougars 42 percent).

Baylor lost, 78-71, to another bask of Cougars (Brigham Young) in Provo, Utah, last Monday. Jalen Bridges had 15 points and eight boards in the losing effort. Baylor is one of three teams (Kansas and Texas Tech) in third in the conference, all two games (through Wednesday) 

There’s not much basketball history with these intrastate schools. Baylor has won both games. 

In fact, this is the only meeting of the season, unless a possible encounter in the Big 12 tournament (Kansas City) or, potentially, the NCAA tournament.

Lines aren’t available, but once posted, please refer to college basketball odds.

Cougars are Defensive

Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars are flat out the best defensive team in the country. Houston surrenders just 55.3 points per game, three-plus fewer than the second-rated Virginia Cavaliers. It’s not surprising the Cougars own the best field-goal defense (37.4 percent), too.

Offensively, it’s ex-Baylor Bear LJ Cryer leading at 15 points per game. Cryer wasn’t effective (2-of-10 FG, eight points) in the win over Iowa St., however. Jamal Shead (13.3 points/game) and Emanuel Sharp (12.6 points/game) did shine against the Cyclones, and have been steady contributors throughout the season. J’Wan Roberts adds nine points and seven rebounds/game. 

Houston, en route to the Big 12 regular-season title, has its sights set on a better March Madness performance this time around, As a No. 1 (Midwest) seed last season, it lost to Miami (Fl.) in the regional semis.

Bears are Offensive

The Baylor Bears of Scott Drew are just outside the top-20 in the country at 82 points per game, effective overall (48.9 percent field goals) and at long range (40.4 percent, second nationally). 

Ja’Kobe Walter (14.4 points per game) leads a half-dozen Bears in double figures, while Yves Missi (11.2 points, team-leading 5.7 rebounds/game) is shooting at a robust 65.2 percent clip).

Defensively some issues, having surrendered 71 points/game while the other guys shoot better than 45 percent. The latter figure is way down the rankings.

Houston Rolls on the Road

Houston is the 17-2 (+850) third choice (behind the Connecticut Huskies and Purdue Boilermakers) to win it all, Baylor at 40-1 (+4000), as per college basketball championship odds.

It’s a battle of contrasting styles. Houston stifles defensively, Baylor needing to push the pace.

As the Houston Cougars are coming in playing better than the Baylor Bears, we don’t think even  the crowd at the spanking-new Foster Pavilion can make the difference. Baylor will keep this tight, but the Cougars leave with the road win (as the favorite).