2024 NFL Draft Odds Update

It’s almost time to kick off Super Bowl LVIII which means it won’t be long before the 2024 NFL draft is upon us. The 2024 draft will begin on April 25 and will be held in downtown Detroit. The Chicago Bears hold the rights to the first overall pick. The Bears got that pick in a trade with Carolina, who selected first last season.

The Panthers took quarterback Bryce Young, who was the 19th quarterback to go No. 1 overall in the past 26 NFL drafts. It’s no secret that the position is the most important one on the field and choosing the right one can bring good fortune to a franchise for many years to come. There is a clear-cut favorite this year to go first overall. The question is will the Bears make the pick?

The Favorite: Caleb Williams -900

The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner is the favorite to go No. 1. Most are speculating that Chicago will look to trade current QB Justin Fields ahead of the draft and take Williams, who many feel is a can’t-miss prospect. There is a problem with that theory though and we’ll examine it in a minute. 

If Chicago were to trade out of the top spot and keep Fields, it is likely that whoever held the No. 1 pick would select Williams as well. While he didn’t have nearly the year last year that he did in 2022, Williams still threw for 3,633 yards, 30 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. He’s bigger than Young and checks all the boxes, however…

Bears Get Warning to Stay Away from Caleb Williams from Unlikely Source

History of No. 1 QBs

There have been 57 NFL drafts in the Super Bowl era. There are only eight quarterbacks drafted first overall that have ever won a Super Bowl ring. Just because you draft the next “sure thing” doesn’t mean you are going to enjoy instant success. JaMarcus Russell anyone?

You will recognize the names of the eight QB No. 1s to win a Super Bowl – the Manning brothers, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, and Drew Bledsoe. The last one you’ll remember too, but not in the way you remember the other seven. David Carr. The only reason why Carr has a Super Bowl ring is he was signed as Eli Manning’s backup during the 2011 season. Like so many others, Carr was largely a bust. 

The Contenders

North Carolina QB Drake Maye is given +450 odds to go No. 1. Maye has dazzled NFL scouts with his size, arm strength, and accuracy. Maye threw for 3,608 yards and 33 touchdowns last season, but it is unlikely that he goes No. 1. The only other players with +1000 odds or better are this year’s Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 

There were those that felt Daniels didn’t deserve this year’s Heisman, but the LSU quarterback completed 72.2 percent of his passes this season. He threw for 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns, and just four picks. Harrison had 1,211 receiving yards and 14 touchdown receptions. He is a generational talent who might be better than his Hall of Fame father. 

What to Expect

With the quarterback position being so important and the hype surrounding Williams, it’s likely he will be the No. 1 pick. It’s also likely that the team selecting Williams is the Chicago Bears. Here’s what Chicago fans can expect next year from their No. 1 draft pick.

The average rookie quarterback (all rookies, not just those taken No. 1) will throw for 3,311 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He will end up with a 78.9 QB rating. For comparison’s sake, this year’s top rated QB was San Francisco’s Brock Purdy, who will start the Super Bowl on Sunday. Purdy’s QB rating was 113.0. He passed for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns. 

The average rookie would have ranked 31st this year in QB rating, even with Washington’s Sam Howell, who threw for 3,946 yards and 21 touchdowns. Howell also had 21 interceptions. Other names close by include the Jets’ Zach Wilson, the Patriots’ Mac Jones, and last year’s No. 1 pick, Young.