In or Out? Can Goff & The Lions Cover in San Francisco?

Detroit Lions football has struggled for years. Since last winning a postseason game in the 1991 season, Detroit had nine winning seasons in the three decades between 1992 and 2021. Head coach Dan Campbell has given the Lions two consecutive winning seasons – 9-8 in 2022 and 12-5 this season. Campbell has led Detroit to two straight playoff wins and the Lions were favored in both games. That’s something the franchise hasn’t seen in 70 years.

Now, Detroit heads to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog to the 49ers. The Niners have been the favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII for several weeks now. Can the Lions and their quarterback Jared Goff go into San Francisco and pull off the upset? History has something to say about that.

Lions Postseason History

Detroit hasn’t been to the postseason that often. Since 2000, the Lions have made the playoffs just four times. Detroit had been a postseason favorite just five times before yesterday. The Lions were 2-3 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in those games. 

Yesterday against Tampa Bay, the Lions almost looked like the Lions of old when they allowed a third quarter Baker Mayfield touchdown pass to tie the game at 17-all. However, the new-look Lions dug deep and scored the game’s next two touchdowns then picked off Mayfield late in the game to ice the 31-23 victory. As a six-point favorite, the Lions were able to cover once again in a playoff game. Recently, Detroit has done a much better job against the number. Historically…not so much.

Lions Under Campbell

With Campbell as their head coach, the Lions are the most profitable NFL team against the spread. This is Campbell’s third season as Detroit’s head coach. The Lions are 36-17 ATS since Campbell took over in 2021. 

Detroit has been outstanding at home. This season, the Lions were 6-2 straight up at home. They were just as good on the road where they had the fourth-best road record in the NFL at 6-3 straight up this year. They were even better against the spread, going 7-2 ATS away from home. Can they do it again this week, covering a touchdown spread?

Goff Is the Difference

The answer to that question likely comes down to Detroit QB Jared Goff. You’ll remember that Goff was obtained in a trade that sent Lions fan favorite Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams. Goff started very slowly as a Ram, going 0-7 ATS in his first seven NFL games. He’s turned that around though and is now 70-45-2 ATS in his career. In his last three seasons, Goff is 34-16 ATS, a winning percentage of 68 percent and the best in the NFL over that span.

Here’s the issue, though. Goff has spent the bulk of his career playing home games in an indoor stadium. Playing indoors, he’s 36-17 ATS, including 26-9 ATS as a Detroit Lion. Where the issue is, of course, is Goff in outdoor games. For his career, he’s 34-35-2 ATS outside. It gets even worse late in the season. In December and January games outdoors, Goff is just 9-15-1 ATS. If Detroit will have any chance of pulling the upset on Sunday, it will be up to Goff to buck this trend.

The Lions are +7 this weekend at San Francisco at BetUS sportsbook. We are taking the Lions on the spread and moneyline. We have even dropped a nickel on the Lions to win the Super Bowl at +750.