Realistic Bets to Win March Madness 2024

Believe it or not, in two months we will be settling in for an evening of madness. That would be March Madness. The NCAA Selection Committee will reveal the 68-team field on Sunday, March 17. The tournament gets underway on Tuesday, March 19, with the First Four and the First Round of March Madness will begin on Thursday, March 21.

With just two months left in the regular season, which teams have the best shot at winning it all? We’d all like to think that we can pick the best Cinderella and cash in big on our win. In reality, that’s probably not the case. Here’s a look at the teams with the most realistic shot at winning March Madness as well as a few longshots.

The Real Deal

The reigning national champion is UConn, which is 15-2 and, just this week, earned the No. 1 ranking in the nation. The Huskies are strong defensively, ranking in top-35 in the country in scoring defense. UConn allows opponents 65.5 points per game all while scoring 83.1 per game and ranking 20th. 

Senior guard Cam Spencer leads the Huskies in scoring, averaging 15.6 points per game. Head coach Dan Hurley has four others scoring in double figures and he can go eight deep into the bench. Depth, defense, and scoring are why UConn offers value at +1100 to win March Madness.

Purdue, which became just the second team to get bounced from the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed in Round 1, is 15-2 and has the reigning Wooden Award winner in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey. The Boilermakers are a top-10 scoring team averaging 85.1 points per game. Edey protects the rim and Purdue has three guards – Fletcher Loyer, Lance Jones, and Braden Smith – that can do it all. The Boilermakers are the overall betting favorite right now at +800. They are the only team listed with better than +1000 odds at online sportsbooks.

Still Realistic

After Purdue and UConn, there are a handful of teams that should be top-4 seeds (or better) in the tournament. Houston (14-2) is the best defensive team in the country (51.4 ppg) and would love to make up for their regional final loss last year. The Cougars are given +1100 odds. Only Arizona (12-4) is given better odds (+1000) than Houston, North Carolina (+1600) and Auburn (+1600). 

The Tar Heels (13-3) are ranked No. 4 in the country and are 5-0 in the ACC. UNC’s losses were to blueblood programs in Villanova, Kansas (+2000), and Duke (+2000). Both the Jayhawks (14-2) and Blue Devils (13-3) have multiple national championships and are realistic bets to win it all in 2024.

The other realistic choice to win a national championship is No. 6 Tennessee (12-4). The Vols first three losses of the season were to then No. 2 Purdue, then No. 1 Kansas, and then No. 17 North Carolina. Like Kansas and Duke, Tennessee is given +2000 odds to win at top rated sportsbook. Senior 6-6 guard Dalton Knecht is as good as they come and he averages 18.5 points per game for the Vols who are 3-1 in SEC play so far.

Realistically Speaking, Seeds Matter

Last year was kind of an anomaly. There were zero No. 1, 2, or 3 seeds in the Final Four. Remember, UConn was a No. 4 seed and beat San Diego State, a No. 5. Prior to last year, at least one No. 1 seed played in the championship game in each of the previous seven title games. In that span, two No. 1s played each other twice. 

Before last year, the previous seven NCAAB finals saw just one seed lower than a No. 3. That was No. 8 North Carolina in 2022. Since the NCAA expanded the tournament to 64 teams in 1985 (it’s 68 now), there have been 78 teams that have played in the national final. Only 10 of those teams were seeded below No. 4 and some of those names include bluebloods like Kentucky, Kansas, Indiana, and North Carolina.

Over the last 11 NCAA tournaments, only once did an eventual national champion open with odds higher than +2400. That was UConn in 2014. The Huskies won the title as a No. 7 seed, beating No. 8 Kentucky in the championship. Last year, UConn opened at +1600. The point here is that wildly betting on teams that will not be at least a No. 4 seed in the tournament and who have odds greater than +2400 is probably not wise. That doesn’t mean you can’t find some value further down the betting board.

Longshot Best Bets

Most bettors probably wrote off Alabama after they dropped three straight games. The thing is, the losses were to – in order – No. 4 Purdue, No. 8 Creighton, and No. 4 Arizona. The Crimson Tide have played a brutal schedule and it has only made head coach Nate Oats team better. Since the three straight losses, Alabama (12-4) has won six straight. They lead the SEC with a 4-0 record and will play at No. 6 Tennessee on Saturday, Jan. 20. Alabama is given +2200 odds to win March Madness.

Last year, Creighton (13-4) came within a bucket of earning a trip to the Final Four. The Bluejays and fellow Big East member Marquette (11-5) are both listed at +3500 to win this year’s national championship. Creighton has three players – 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner, G Baylor Scheierman, and G Trey Alexander – that average over 15 points per game. The Bluejays won the first battle with Marquette this season, 72-67.

The Golden Eagles have spent the majority of the 2023-24 season ranked in the top-10. They are solid defensively and Kam Jones leads the offense averaging 15.3 points per game. Marquette has lost three games in conference play already, but they look like at least a No. 4 seed in March Madness. Defense and guard play wins championships and Marquette has both.