Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Playoffs Free Pick

It’s a rematch of the 1966 AFL title game (Google this, trust us) in Orchard Park Sunday evening, a pair of 11-6 (regular season) teams in the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. 

Kansas City, winners of the AFC West yet again, defeated the Miami Dolphins, 26-7, in the wild-card round, 409 yards of offense in the process.  

Buffalo, dead through much of the season, rolled down the stretch to win the AFC East. Then, the Bills downed the Pittsburgh Steelers, 31-17, in a weather-delayed, opening-round game.

Weather, by western New York standards, should not factor (high in mid-20’’s, light snow (?)). 

Buffalo is a 2½-point favorite (total at 45½), according to NFL odds.

Moneyline is Bills -145, Chiefs at +125.

Buffalo is leading the all-time series (including postseason), 29-24-1.

Chiefs’ Uncharted Road

The Kansas City Chiefs are taking a different postseason road this season, as in just playing on the road. This the first away postseason game in the seven-season career of quarterback Patrick Mahomes (regular-season 4,183 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions). 

His worst season (statistically) notwithstanding, Mahomes was solid (23-of-41, 262 yards, one touchdown) in the bitter cold against the Fish. 

Rashee Rice (eight receptions, 130 yards, one touchdown) and Isiah Pacheco (24 carries 89 yards, one touchdown) more than ably assisted Mahomes. It’s not as if the Chiefs’ offense goes flat once it leaves Arrowhead (22.8 points per game home, 20.8 points/game away), but it’s a different environment. During the regular season, KC was 5-4 at home, 6-2 outside Missouri. 

Kansas City’s stubborn defense has surrendered 16.7 points/game (including last week). That’s second in the league, only to the Baltimore Ravens. KC limited the Dolphins to just 264 yards.  

The 57 sacks during the season (again second to the Ravens) suggest the Chiefs plan to pressure Josh Allen.

Bolstering the Bills

Essentially dead in the water much of this season, it’s been a renaissance (six wins in a row) with the Buffalo Bills, led by quarterback Josh Allen (see 52-yard touchdown run last Monday).

Allen (regular-season 4,306 yards, 29 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 15 rushing touchdowns) riddled the Pittsburgh Steelers (277 yards [203 passing, 74 rushing]) this past Monday, Allen has completed 51-of-68 passes (562 yards, five touchdowns, two picks) in his last couple.

Wide receiver Stefon Diggs (regular-season 1,183 yards, eight touchdowns) has seven catches in each of his last two, while Khalil Shazir (touchdown last week) has been getting more involved in the offense.

A stingy defense has surrendered about 18 points and 308 yards/game, figures which rank well inside the top 10 this season. 

Take the Roadies

Buffalo is 5-1 (+500) to win its first-ever title in the NFL, KC at 7-1 (+700) to defend, as per Super Bowl LVIII odds. 

Everything has been going right with the Buffalo Bills in the past month, but at some point, things may change. It’s our take that happens this Sunday.

Patrick Mahomes is 12-3 in the postseason, though this is first true assignment on the road. 

We can’t ignore him as a plus-money option in this game. 

Take the Kansas City Chiefs +125 in Orchard Park, advancing to the title game in the AFC.

(By the way, KC was a 31-7 winner in that ‘66 AFL tile game at War Memorial Stadium).