Michigan vs Washington – College Football National Championship Free Pick

Scott Morris | January 5, 2024

The big game will be played this Monday at 7:30 pm EST. It will feature Michigan against Washington. Michigan was an early season favorite having returned most of their starters from a successful 2022 campaign. The team was poised to peak this year and that is exactly what they did. They steamrolled most of their competition only failing to defeat three opponents by less than double digits.

Washington was way down at #12 in pre-season polls at the start of the season. Experts believed Washington was good but didn’t realize they were as good as they are. In fact, Washington was underdogs thrice this season. Twice they were underdogs to Oregon and at some sportsbooks they were slight dogs to Oregon State. If you were smart you cashed in on all three of these ridiculous valuation mistakes by linemakers.

Both teams are 14-0 and despite and what some detractors may argue, the correct two teams made it to the big game. The only real argument left to be had is who should you bet on in this matchup.

Odds and Lines

Washington +4.5
Michigan -4.5

Washington +170
Michigan -200

Total Points Over/Under: 56.5 points

Team Scoring

Washington Over/Under: 24.5 points
Michigan Over/Under: 30.5 points

These odds are from SportsBetting.ag

Superior Defense from the Blue and Maize

Michigan has a fantastic defense as showcased it in their win over Alabama. In the Big Ten championship game they held Iowa to 0 points. They held Nebraska, Bowling Green, UNLV, Rutgers, and Indiana to just one score and they blanked Michigan State on the road (49-0).

The Michigan defense has only allowed 2100 yards passing in 13 games. They have only allowed 9 passing TD’s. They have sacked the opponent 38 times. That is roughly 3 sacks per game. Jaylen Harrell led the team in sacks with 8. The team is very effective at getting to the quarterback and is very happy to spread the quarterback sacks around.

Washington’s Prolific Offense

The Huskies score and they seem to do so at will. They have tools to move the ball and it all starts with their QB Michael Penix Jr. He is simply lights out. They Huskies were held to less than 24 points only once this season in a struggle against Arizona Sate where they won 15-7. They average 37 PPG on offense.

Washington only seems to struggle when the weather is poor. This is when Penix’s game really seems to be affected. Luckily for them, the game is being played indoors and there won’t be an issue with weather.

Matchup

TV networks love games like these where the top team from the west coast plays a team from the east. Michigan isn’t exactly geographically located in the east but they are a Big Ten team and that is considered an eastern conference. Games like these can give handicappers fits however. That’s because teams from the left coast rarely face the same opponent as teams from the east. Michigan and Washington did play the same foe once this year however. Both played Michigan State at Lansing. Washington won 41-7 and Michigan won 49-0.

This game will pivot on how Washington handles Michigan’s defense. If they are able to score at least 1 TD per quarter they can very well win this game. If they are stymied by Michigan’s defense then the game is a slam dunk for Michigan. You can pretty much count on Michigan’s offense being able to put up at least 28 points in this game. Washington will not be able to stop them.

Washington’s Approach

The strategy has been simple for the Huskies all year. They want to beat you by winning in a score-fest. They don’t care if you score because they will march down the field and score themselves. They count on their opponent to make mistakes and each three-and-out is an opportunity for Washington to hang more points on the scoreboard. This philosophy works fine against teams with similar mediocre defenses. But Michigan’s defense is a different animal.

Michigan’s Approach

Here is how we see this game playing out for Michigan. They have playing to set up this game all year. Their running game is superior. They have established this fact. They proved how formidable it was at Penn Sate where they committed to running the ball on every single play in the second half. They didn’t attempt a single pass.

Coach Jim Harbaugh and his coaches know that Washington has seen the all the video and will be keying on the run. That’s why you can expect the “feint maneuver” in this game. Harbaugh will come out and make it look like he is going to try and establish the run. But he will quickly switch to passing the ball. And he will not relent. Washington will not be able to stop Michigan.

The Betting Public

It’s a good idea to look at how the public is betting the game if you can get reliable access to that information. Look no further than SBA because we have that info for you.

69% of tickets and 72% of the money is on Washington on a recorded 42,000 bets placed as of today. The public clearly likes Washington +4.5 points in this game. If you are a fan of contrarian betting then this information is very intriguing.

Picks

Defense wins championships. You have heard that saying before no doubt. This case is no different. Michigan has the #1 ranked defense in all the land, giving up less than 250 yards per game. Washington on the other hand is ranked #94 and give up over 400 yards per game.

Three weeks ago, we posted “look ahead lines” for this game and had Michigan as 8.5 favorites. We don’t really feel much different about that. Maybe 7 or 7.5 would be more appropriate but that is moot. The fact is that we believe Michigan is the best team in the country hands down and we have believed that all year. The line is weak and you should take advantage of it.

With all of that said here are our picks for this game:

3* play on Over 193.5 passing yards for Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

5* play on Michigan -4.5

5* play on Michigan ML -200

You can bet these picks at BetUS.com and play with the confidence that you will get paid if you win. They accept many forms of payment including Visa, MC, Bank Wire, Cryptocurrency and more.