To Rest or Not to Rest – NFL Week 18

It’s the final week of the 2023 NFL season and a number of teams have nothing left to play for. Those include the top teams in each conference – the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC and the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC. Both teams have locked down the No. 1 seed in their respective conference and the first-round playoff bye that comes with it.

The question for teams like the Niners and Ravens then becomes whether or not they should rest some or all of their starters in Week 18. Here’s a look at which teams will choose rest and which ones may not.

Top Seeds

The Baltimore Ravens will host the 9-7 Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday afternoon. The Ravens own the top seed in the AFC no matter what. The interesting thing here is that Pittsburgh must win in order to make the playoffs. Currently, the Steelers are ninth in the AFC standings. Head coach Mike Tomlin won’t be resting anyone.

The Ravens, on the other hand, will likely sit stars like QB Lamar Jackson. Head coach John Harbaugh has not said anything about resting anyone as of yet. Still, it would be hard to believe that any Baltimore starter will play the entire game on Saturday.

It’s the same for the 49ers, who clinched the top spot in the NFC. They gain nothing with a win over NFC West rival Los Angeles, but head coach Kyle Shanahan has not said anything about whether or not his starters will play or rest. He has determined that NFL leading rusher Christian McCaffrey will not play. As for the rest of the starters, that remains to be seen.

Most Likely to Rest

There are a few other teams that may or may not rest their starters. The most glaring situation where a team can rest its key players is in Cleveland. The Browns are locked in to the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs. They will play on the road at the No. 4 seed on wild card weekend. Head coach Kevin Stefanski hasn’t committed to resting anyone as of yet, but this is another situation where a team gains nothing by playing its best players.

The Chiefs are the No. 3 seed in the AFC and will most likely remain there regardless of the outcome of their final game against the Chargers. In the NFC, the Detroit Lions play the Vikings at home in Week 18. The Lions have an outside shot of moving up into the No. 2 spot in the NFC, but it’s not likely. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell has said he will play his starters since a win and losses by Dallas and Philadelphia moves the Lions up one spot.

Control Your Future

The remainder of teams not already eliminated from postseason contention all have something to play for. There are eight teams that control their own future this weekend. Two of them play each other in an AFC South Division battle. Houston is at Indianapolis on Saturday night and the winner is in the playoffs. The winner can also win the division if Jacksonville loses at Tennessee on Sunday.

Miami and Buffalo also play each other with the AFC East Division on the line. A Miami win gives the Fins the division and the No. 2 seed. A loss gives Buffalo the No. 2 seed. A Bills loss would mean Buffalo needs help. A Steelers or Jags loss would send Buffalo to the postseason. For the Jags, it’s simple. Win and you’re in as the No. 4 seed.

In the NFC, it’s the same for Tampa Bay. Beat the Carolina Panthers and the Bucs are in as the NFC’s No. 4 seed. Green Bay also automatically qualifies for the playoffs with a win over the Bears on Sunday. Dallas also controls its destiny. They can enter the playoffs as the NFC East winner and No. 2 seed with a win over Washington. 

Not an Easy Decision

For most NFL head coaches, the decision to rest starters is a tough one. The Chiefs Andy Reid has, historically, always rested guys in meaningless games. Other coaches like Harbaugh say it’s too hard to sit everyone. You only have 53 players on an active roster and you need guys to fill up special teams. Plus, you need guys to practice.

Some NFL coaches also do not like their best players to lose any edge they have. Taking a whole week off and then not playing in Week 18 can sometimes have a detrimental effect on players and, consequently, a team. During the 2021 NFL, Green Bay earned the NFC’s No. 1 seed and Tennessee was No. 1 in the AFC. Both teams lost in their first playoff game.