How to Hedge Alabama Futures Bet if You Bet Them When They Were +5000

In late September we posted an article advising people to bet Alabama when they were as high as +5000 odds. We have received emails from a few people who said they did just that. The average wager on that futures bet was $200. A person can play around with the numbers in the scenarios below to get the best outcome to fit their idea of what they want to win. The hard part is over, now let’s get to hedging.

The first round is important. We think Michigan is the best team in the country and that is not just because they are slightly favored over Alabama. So, we want to capitalize in the first round as much as possible and still leave plenty of room for some good profit making opportunities in the championship game should Alabama beat Michigan.

Our goal is not to try and get an exact equal outcome for each scenario. Our goal is to maximize profit based on what we think the most likely scenarios are. Also, we wanted to include a few opportunities to cash in big on some great “tweeners” (middles) as well.

The spreads are based on our 2023-2024 College Football Championship look Ahead Lines article we posted earlier today. These numbers wills serve as a baseline and you can adjust the numbers yourself when the actual spreads are posted.

The profit opportunities break down like this:

A) Profit $3200
B) Profit $3000
C) Profit $10,650
D) Profit $1000
E) Profit $3075
F) Profit $3400
G) Profit $10,925
H) Profit $900
I) Profit $725
J) $2450
K) $2550

Obviously scenarios C and G are the best on the board. The reason scenarios H and I pay so little is so that C and G can exist.

How to Hedge Bama Futures if You Bet Them at Their Peak Moneyline

A) If you bet Alabama in earlier in the year getting the huge moneyline, the hedge should go something like this. Let’s say you have $200 on Alabama to win roughly $10K. In the first game you would bet Michigan on the money line (-120) for $3850 to win $3200. B) If Michigan wins you net $3000 ($3200 -$200 original futures bet). Note: Only bet moneyline for this game, No spread.

However, if Bama moves on, this is where the real fun begins. You have a choice to make and that choice is if you want to bet the opponent’s moneyline (risk losing less) or bet the point spread (bet more but have a shot at the “middle” which will be a huge payoff).

Alabama vs Washington

Spread

C) If Alabama faces Washington in the final game you can bet $5000 to win $4500 on Washington. For a “middle” (shot at winning both sides) Alabama can still win and as long as it’s not by more than 7 you win both bets (You may want to buy the half point if possible). You walk away with $10,000 (futures bet) +$4500 -$3850(money lost on Michigan in 1st round of playoffs). Your haul will be $10,650 profit overall.

D) If Washington wins straight up in this scenario then you stand to just win just $1000 ($4,500 side on Washington -$3300 on Michigan bet in rd. 1 -$200 original wager).

Moneyline

E) If you bet $2850 on the Washington moneyline (+250) instead and they win straight up this bet would pay $7125. This would leave you with $3075 to the good ($7125 – $3850 (Michigan bet in round 1) -$200 (original futures bet on Bama).

F) If Alabama wins you net $3400 ($10,000 futures bet -$3850 on Michigan in rd. 1 -$2750 Washington moneyline).

You could use the same technique against Texas but the margins would be slimmer.

Alabama vs Texas

Rematch of the First game of the season for both teams where Texas beat Alabama 34-24 in Tuscaloosa. Many analysts are thinking if this game is played today, with Alabama having grown the way they have, Alabama would be an easy winner.

Spread

G) For the spread you could bet $5250 to win $4775 on Texas and have a shot at the middle still. It would net $10925 if you hit the “tweener”. This would occur if Alabama won by 1-3 points.

H) If Alabama wins and covers you would net just $900 however.

I) If Texas wins outright you clear just $725 ($4775 -$3850 Michigan bet -$200 Alabama futures bet).

Moneyline

J) However, if you decide to bet Texas on the moneyline as a hedge you will need to risk more to cover your first round Michigan bet loss. Risk $3600 on Texas straight up at +180 to win $6500. If Texas wins outright this would net you $2450 ($6500 win – $3850 Michigan in 1st round -$200 initial futures wager). K) If Alabama wins this would net you $2550 ($10,000 -$3850 Michigan bet – $3600 Texas bet).

Summary

The way you hedge your Alabama futures bet depends on how much risk you want to take and how much reward you want as well. If you want to take a big shot at the tweeners and make the most profit, you will have to also risk the chance of being left with very little profit. The safer bets are hedging moneylines all the way through to guarantee profits in the four digits.