The College Football Playoff – Problem Solved

The College Football Playoff selection committee made its choices yesterday for the 2023 CFP. And with that, the floodgates have opened. Everyone has an opinion. Some are furious; others are ecstatic. But, Michigan, Washington, Alabama, and Texas will play for a national championship. Why?

The “Best”

The word “best” gets thrown around so much when we talk about the CFP. The problem with the word is that it is relative. What is “best” for one person isn’t always the “best” for another. Some of you, of course, think Georgia is the best team in the nation even though they lost to Alabama in the SEC championship.

The CFP committee gets together to pick the “best” four college football teams to play in the playoff. Again, how can 13 people with different versions of the “best” determine the four “best” teams in the nation.

It’s actually fairly simple and it doesn’t involve expanding the CFP to 12 teams.

Expansion

The expansion of the CFP next year will further water down the idea of crowning a national champion in college football. Imagine next year when you have five two-loss teams that did not win their conference championship playing for a national title. That’s what would be happening if the 12-team format was in place this year.

Missouri (10-2) is ranked No. 9. Yes, the Tigers are a good football team. They did not win the SEC. They didn’t even win their division in the SEC. So, why should they be playing for a national championship? The same holds true for Penn State, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma.

Now, if Missouri hadn’t lost to LSU and Georgia, they would have played for an SEC title. If they would have won the SEC title, they would be deserving of playing in the CFP. But, there’s another problem with words here… “deserving.”

The Criteria

Just because one feels a team “deserves” to be in the CFP is not a reason why they should. Doesn’t 13-0, ACC champion Florida State “deserve” to play for a national title? That brings us to the issue at hand.

The issue is the criteria for picking the teams that make the playoff. Football is the last vestige of merit in America and maybe the world. We live in a time where everyone gets a trophy. Everyone “deserves” to be able to get a trophy, right?

No, they don’t and that’s what makes football great. Go out and beat your opponent and you get a win. The other team gets a loss. That’s it. You win more games than all the teams in your league and you win a league championship. That’s pretty simple.

But, we have to make it more difficult with power rankings, football power index, strength of schedule, blah, blah, blah. The bottom line is simple. Did you or did you not win all your games? That is where it should all start.

The Solution

Now, this solution makes a ton of assumptions, most of which will never happen. One is this. The FBS should be revamped to include only 128 teams. Really, you could take it to 64 and just eliminate the Group of 5 teams. There are too many teams that simply don’t belong, but eliminating them will never happen (everyone is “deserving” right?).

With 128 teams, there would be four Power conferences and four Not Power conferences. Each conference – Power 4 and Group of 4 – would consist of 16 teams divided into two divisions. Each team within a division would play every other team in its division. That’s seven games. Teams would crossover and play two teams from the other division.

Those nine games would count toward the conference record. Teams would be able to play two more games – yes, that’s right, 11 total. Get rid of the 12th game. That will never happen either since there is too much money in TV rights. But, a 12th game is unnecessary.

The other two games could be used to keep traditional rivalries alive. If they are against another team in their conference, the game would not count toward its conference record. Regardless, all teams would play an 11-game regular season with one bye week built in. FBS teams cannot schedule FCS teams anymore either.

Conference Championships & Bowls

This is pretty easy. The division winners of each conference play for a conference championship. The season ends at this point. The bowl invitations are extended. Teams must win seven games to go to a bowl. Just so you know, there are 58 teams with at least seven wins this season.

Get rid of the ridiculous Garbage Bowl games with 6-6 teams getting a bunch of swag playing in front of 5,000 people. There’s a reason the cameras don’t pan the crowd at the Potato Bowl or Bahamas Bowl. 25 bowl games. 50 teams. Done.

At the end of the bowl season, then we can start talking playoff.

College Football Playoff Criteria

No more “best.” No more “deserves.” The criteria to make the College Football Playoff is simply this. A team automatically makes the CFP if they meet each of the following criteria.

1. Conference champion
2. Winner of a major bowl game
3. Ranked in the final top 4

What’s a major bowl game? Great question. Remember when we used to play the most prestigious bowl games on New Year’s Day? Let’s get back to some of that. Major bowl games would be the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, and a sixth that would probably rotate (maybe the Peach and Citrus?).

Anyway, Let’s say Michigan wins the Rose Bowl and ends up ranked No. 1 in the nation. They were a conference champ and fit each of the criteria listed above. Automatically in.

This solution offers a way for Group of 4 teams to make the CFP too. The only difference is this. A Group of 4 conference champion needs to be undefeated. If they are, they would get a shot at a major bowl (just like they do now). If, like a few years ago with Cincinnati, the Group of 4 team finishes ranked in the top 4, they automatically make the playoff.

Flexibility

There would still be a committee to make sure we get it right, but in all instances the committee would defer to “playing it out on the field.” There is a great example of this in the 2023 CFP field. Texas beat Alabama. The bottom line is that if a decision can be made because two teams played each other, then the winner gets in.

Now, there has to be some flexibility built into the system. That flexibility is this. In some years, there are not four teams that should play for a championship. Sometimes, there are only two. This season, there are three. Rarely would we see five or six.

Using 2023 as an example, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State are all conference champions. Let’s say Michigan and Washington win their bowl games. Then, there’s Florida State. Oh, they’re quarterback got hurt. They aren’t the “best” anymore. They aren’t “deserving.” Well, if they would go out and win again in a major bowl game then they sure would be deserving. They actually won two games without their star Jordan Travis.

Anyway, let’s say FSU does indeed win its bowl game and ends up ranked No. 3. That would mean the top-3 teams in the country would automatically qualify for the CFP. Now, would Alabama make it? They would be a conference champ and we’ll say they won their bowl game. Guess what? They didn’t finish in the top-3. Out.

Texas. Conference champion. Let’s say they win their bowl game. The Horns have a great win over Alabama, but you know what else they have? A loss to Oklahoma. That loss kept them out of the top-3. Horns…out.

B-b-b-b-but Georgia. That’s an easy one. Not a conference champion. But, they’re the “best.” Well, the criteria says that they aren’t because they didn’t beat Alabama in their conference championship.

CFP 2023

Florida State not making this year’s CFP is exactly why figure skating sucks. It’s all subjective. Sure, you can all argue that the Seminoles didn’t play a tough enough schedule. Okay, but they won all of their games. They won their conference championship…and they got left out. Why exactly did they play any games this season?

If you simply follow the criteria, there would be three teams worthy of playing for this year’s national championship. The committee seeds them and it would probably be Michigan No. 1 followed by Washington and Florida State.

The Seminoles would play the Huskies. The winner plays Michigan for the national championship. Maybe the committee decides that Alabama and Texas should make it too. Then, you have No. 2 play No. 5 and No. 3 play No. 4. The winners of those games play each other and the winner plays No. 1.

Of course, this is a pipe dream and will never happen…or could it?

See the CFB Playoffs Point Spreads Here