What Happened to USC Football in 2023?

Fresh off an 11-3 season in which they played for a Pac-12 championship, the USC Trojans were primed for a College Football Playoff berth. They had the reigning Heisman Trophy winner running what appeared to be a juggernaut of an offense. Head coach Lincoln Riley was the guy who was going to transform the Trojans back to the glory days when they consistently competed for conference and national championships.

Then, it all fell apart. What happened to a team that started the season 6-0 and ended it 7-5? 

The Beginning

In the preseason AP Top 25, USC was ranked No. 6 in the country. That, of course, was the direct result of their 2022 season that saw Caleb Williams win college football’s most coveted award. The Heisman winner was a sophomore who would be returning for his junior season this year. The Trojans offense also had some weapons – Brenden Rice and Dorian Singer – at Williams’ disposal.

Williams threw for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns leading an offense that finished third in the country in scoring, passing, and total offense. USC started the 2022 season 6-0 before losing by one, 43-42, to eventual Pac-12 champion Utah. The Trojans also lost to the Utes in the conference championship game 47-24 before losing in the Cotton Bowl 46-45.

It’s those late losses that should have raised some red flags. 

USC’s Trojan Horse

Sure, 2022 was a success for Riley and the Trojans. However, upon closer analysis, something drastic needed to be done on the defensive side of the ball. USC returned five starters from a unit that gave up 29.2 points per game. Giving up four touchdowns a game usually isn’t what championship teams do. However, the strength of USC’s offense made up for their deficiencies on defense.

The pass defense was awful, ranking 111th in the nation. The Trojans also gave up 423.9 yards of offense to opponents. That ranked 105th. Fast-forward a year and the USC defense is even worse. The Trojans rank 120th out of 133 FBS teams in total defense. They allow 438.8 yards per game. They rank 124th in scoring defense allowing 34.9 points per game. 

The Trojans were rolling right along when they took on an unbeaten Colorado team in Game 5. USC led by double digits but allowed Colorado the game’s final three touchdowns. The Trojans won, but by a score of 48-41.

A week later, the Trojans had to go to triple overtime to beat Arizona 43-41. USC was 6-0, but had allowed 82 points in two weeks. Interestingly, the Trojans were ranked No. 5 in the nation in Week 4 when they were 3-0. After they beat Arizona to go to 6-0, USC had dropped all the way to No. 10. The drop would continue and, ultimately, the offense would sputter too.

Reality Sinks In

Because of USC’s poor defense, the Trojans would win just once more the rest of the season. They were lucky to get that win, a 50-49 nailbiter in which Cal failed to convert a two-point conversion with 58 seconds left in the game. Otherwise, the Trojans would be 6-6. 

Over those last six games, USC gave up an average of 42.8 points per game. Teams competing for championships don’t give up 40-plus points a game. Plus, championship teams don’t regress on offense. In their season finale last weekend, USC was dominated by crosstown rival UCLA. 

The offensive line was down two starters in the second half, but Williams was pressured all day long and the Trojans managed just three yards rushing. Yes, you read that right – three. Williams did manage 384 yards passing, but it was not enough.

One of the most overlooked stats regarding the Trojans demise was their turnover margin. In 2022, USC had one of the more ridiculous turnover margins in recent history – plus-21. The defense came up with 28 turnovers last year compared to the offense’s seven. This season the Trojans are minus-2. That plus bad defense put a huge damper on what was supposed to be another strong season.

Now What? 

At 7-5, USC will play in a bowl game. Riley’s first order of business is hiring an outstanding defensive coordinator. Anyone thinking Riley is going to be fired after his second season missed the memo on Jimbo Fisher. Riley would be owed somewhere in the neighborhood of $90 to $100 in the form of a buyout. That’s not happening at USC. 

Don’t forget, this is still the guy – Riley – who went 55-10 at Oklahoma. He will have to replace Williams, who will enter the draft after this season. The question is will he play in the bowl game or not. Regardless, Riley will use the bowl season to prepare for next year when the Trojans join the Big Ten. He will have to have that defense ready to go. The offense too. The top-4 scoring defenses in the FBS are all Big Ten teams. 

Bonus Content

A commercial featuring Caleb Williams came out about a month ago. The Trojans were 6-1 when it aired. No doubt it was filmed a month or so earlier. In the commercial Caleb Williams flouts that he is #13 and superstitions don’t apply to him. The way his season crashed around this time is quite the coincidence.