Betting the College Football Postseason

It won’t be long before we start talking about conference championships and bowl games. The 2023 college football season is nearing its end. MAC-tion is in full swing and teams will finish their regular seasons over the Thanksgiving weekend at the end of November. 

With the postseason coming soon, it’s time to start thinking about how to bet these additional games. It all starts with the conference title games. We’ll start there and then take a look at betting on bowl games.

Betting Conference Championship Games

Because there are only so many conference title games, there are fewer betting options for the public. Most of these games will feature at least one ranked opponent, if not two. These teams are popular and there will be a ton of public money coming in, especially on the favorites. That brings up the question, “is it worth fading the public?”

The answer is a resounding “yes.”

It’s a very simple strategy, but it’s a good one to consider when betting on CFB conference championship games. Whichever team the public is backing, you simply bet on the other one. Keep in mind that oddsmakers and sportsbooks know which team public bettors will favor. They will then shade their lines accordingly. This makes betting against the public a solid strategy in heavily-bet games.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

Since 2005, teams getting less than 50 percent of the spread tickets in a CFB conference championship have gone 44-32-3 (57.9%) ATS. Teams getting less than 40 percent of the tickets are 24-15-1 (61.5%) since 2005.

These might not seem like huge numbers, but we can increase the sample size if we include neutral site games, which are similar to conference title matchups. There is a lot of public action on these games too. Adding these games to the mix, we find that teams getting less than 50 percent of the tickets since 2005 in neutral site games won 53.3 percent of the time ATS. Teams getting less than 40 percent of the tickets won 55.8 percent of the time ATS.

Bowl Games: Check the Rosters

When betting bowl games, it pays to check who’s playing and who’s not. In recent years, more and more players skip out on bowl games to prepare for the NFL draft. This can have a huge impact on a bowl game. 

It’s also worth noting the coaching situation. Oftentimes, coaching changes affect bowl games. A head coach may leave for a different job and a school appoints an interim coach. In some cases, a school hires a new coach and he’s in place in time to prepare and coach the team in the bowl game. The bottom line is to make sure you know who’s in and who’s out, whether player or coach.

The Motivation Factor

One of the biggest things to consider in betting on a bowl game is which team is more motivated. There are always situations where a Power 5 team feels shunned by participating in a less-than-worthy bowl game. They might be playing a Group of 5 team that is ecstatic about the opportunity. 

Always make note of service academies in bowl games. Players at Army, Navy, and Air Force are a different breed. They always play no matter the game. That’s why the three teams combined have covered the spread in bowl games over 70 percent of the time over the past 40 years.

Bettors should also take note of teams looking to end their seasons over .500. Since 2005, teams with six wins playing teams with a winning record in a bowl game are 70-49-2 ATS. Teams that win their final regular season game to gain six wins often carry that success over into a bowl game. Those teams are 28-12-2 ATS.