NFL Miami vs. Kansas City Free Pick – Frankfurt Germany

It’s the NFL’s return to Germany Sunday morning (ET), as a pair of 6-2 teams, Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs, meet at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt. 

Miami, currently leading the AFC East by a game over the Buffalo Bills, has flipped the script on a pair of 31-17 games in its last two. It lost to the Eagles in Philadelphia before beating the visiting New England Patriots.

Kansas City was a stagnant, 24-9 loser to the Broncos in Denver last Sunday, snapping a 16-game win streak against their AFC West rivals. With some wiggle room in the division, KC has a 2½-game lead over the Los Angeles Chargers.

Kansas City is a 2½-point favorite (total at 51), according to NFL odds.

Moneyline is Chiefs -140, Dolphins at +120. 

Miami is leading the series (including postseason, Google 1971 divisional playoff), 16-15.

Dolphins Quite Offensive

The Miami Dolphins have far and away the best offense in the league, leading in points per game (33.9), yardage (453.3), passing yards (301½) and rushing (151.8). Miami has already scored 36 touchdowns this season. 

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is having a huge season to date (2,416 yards, 18 touchdowns, seven interceptions). That last stat is concerning, however.

Tyreek Hill (61 receptions, 1,014 receiving yards, eight touchdowns) goes against his former team, probably not needing any incentive.

Raheem Mostert leads the ground game (520 yards, 10 touchdowns). 

The problem with Miami is that they’re surrendering 25½ points per game (25th in NFL). 

KC’s Dull Effort

Beating the Denver Broncos was right there with death and taxes, until last Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs, kept out of the end zone, had their worst effort, eventually losing, 24-9. It ended a 16-game win streak (dating to 2015) against the Broncos. 

Quarterback Patricks Mahomes suffered his first loss to Denver after a dozen victories. He had been 16-0 on the road against the AFC West. He was intercepted twice and fumbled one.

Interest of full disclosure in that Mahomes was playing through illness Sunday. Mahomes (2,258 yards, 15 touchdowns, eight interceptions) is not that different than his opposite number, as in lethal but loose with the football, sometimes at the wrong times.

Running back Isiah Pacheco (459 yards, three touchdowns) continues to give Kansas City a solid threat in the backfield. 

Defensively, Kansas City remains tough, having surrendered just 16.1 points (second in league) and 287.8 yards per game (fourth in NFL). 

It’s the Chiefs

Kansas City is the 5-1 (+500) favorite to successfully defend its title, while Miami is 10-1 (+1000), as per Super Bowl LVIII odds.

While few teams have been able to slow Miami, anticipate Kansas City doing just that. Miami will be trying to take some shots down the field, but that may force some quick possessions and thus more time its own defense spends on the field.

Mahomes can’t be as off as he was in Denver. Expect the Germans to see him at his best.