The Deshaun Watson Disaster – The Worst Trade in NFL History?

Imagine you could trade for your franchise quarterback. You’d pay him $230 million and believed in him so much that you’d guarantee the entire contract. Now, before you could get your hands on him, you’d have to mortgage some of your future. Let’s say three first-round draft picks and a third and fourth rounder to boot. 

You’ve got a great running game and some outstanding receivers. The defense is loaded with a potential NFL Defensive Player of the Year…but…there’s always a but, isn’t there? But, your franchise quarterback comes with some baggage. He was disgruntled with his previous franchise and demanded a trade. The situation grew as the quarterback didn’t even play a single snap in the 2021 season. 

Then, the kicker. Your franchise quarterback is the subject of a civil lawsuit, actually 26 different civil lawsuits. If you’re the Cleveland Browns, you simply say, “Yes, please,” and work out a deal to bring Deshaun Watson to town. That simple trade could become the worst transaction in the history of the NFL.

The Lawsuit

Watson was accused by not one, not two, but 26 different women – all massage therapists – of some form of sexual harassment. It was learned that Watson offered all of the plaintiffs $100,000 each as a form of settlement. Watson did eventually settle all but one of the lawsuits, paying between $1.5 and $2.5 million each. 

The NFL suspended Watson for 11 games of the 2022 season. He had to pay the league a $5 million fine and was forced to undergo and complete a treatment program. 

The 2022 Season

Watson wasn’t eligible until Week 12 last season. He would play the final six games of the regular season and go 3-3 as the starter. He ended up completing 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,102 yards. He threw seven touchdowns and five interceptions and had a career-worst passer rating of 79.1.

Two metrics really dial in how good a quarterback really is. One is EPA per play, or Expected Points Added per play. The other is CPOE, or Completion Percentage Above Expected. You combine the two and you get a great look at how good a quarterback is and how valuable he is compared to others in the league. Watson ranked 37th. He was in the same range as guys like Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota. 

So far in 2023

Is Deshaun Watson wondering if he wants to play anymore in this photo?

So far this season, Watson is still the same underachiever. He’s up to 61.7 percent completion percentage and is averaging 170.8 yards per game. He’s only played in three full games. Watson missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. He then tried to go against Indianapolis last week but essentially pulled himself out of the game after going 1-for-5 for five yards. He completed as many passes to his Browns teammate as he did to the Colts, by the way.

Watson has already been ruled out of this Sunday’s game against Seattle. There are many who are now questioning Watson’s desire to play. He’s certainly had his share of frustrations. In addition to his injury, he threw a pick-six on the first play of the game in a Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh. His fourth quarter fumble was returned for the game-winning touchdown in that loss to the Steelers.

The Contract

Just how bad is it for the Browns? As mentioned, all $230 million of Watson’s contract is guaranteed. That means that Watson gets $230 million no matter what. It’s like MLB contracts. Every dime mentioned in the contract is owed to the player. It’s why Bobby Bonilla collects a $1.15 million check every July 1 and he hasn’t played in 22 years. 

Watson received a signing bonus of roughly $45 million. Watson’s salary in ‘24, ‘25, and ‘26 is set at $46 million. The way the contract works, Watson received his signing bonus this year and his salary will be $1.08 million. Regardless, in the end, the five-year deal works out to a total of $230 million…fully guaranteed!

There is language in Watson’s contract that he will not forfeit his signing bonus nor will he lose any salary for future suspensions. That’s right. Watson could be suspended again and not play, but he will still be paid. 

It gets worse. If the Browns simply let Watson go – they release him – they would carry over $100 million in dead money over the next three years. That essentially prevents them from going after any big-name free agents. In 2026, that number drops, but it’s still $64 million! Oh, and there’s the no-trade clause in Watson’s contract. 

Cleveland is stuck with a massage-loving, unproductive, shell of a quarterback. If Watson doesn’t return to playing at some sort of high level, this will definitely be the worst trade in NFL history.