NCAAF Duke at Louisville Free Pick

Do not sleep on this “basketball” rivalry in the Atlantic Coast Conference Saturday afternoon. The No. 20 Duke Blue Devils (5-2, 2-1 ACC) visit the 18th-ranked Louisville Cardinals (6-1, 3-1) as both teams try to stay within reach of the Florida St. Seminoles in the standings.

Game time at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium is 3:30 PM ET.

Duke suffered a 38-20 defeat to those same Seminoles at Tallahassee last week, having squandered a 17-7 lead in the second quarter. Now losing two of its last three, Duke needs to right the ship or risk falling completely out the rankings.

Louisville dropped its first game of the season, 38-21, at Pitt two weeks ago. Having an extra week to prepare can’t hurt the Cards, who were outscored, 24-0, by the Panthers in the second half.  .

Louisville is a four-point favorite (total at 46½), according to college football odds.

Moneyline is Cardinals -180, Blue Devils at +155.

Louisville has won all three meetings between teams (62-22 in 2021’s last meeting). It’s the first time these teams have met while both are ranked.

Duke’s Tough Schedule

This Saturday finds the Duke Blue Devils playing their third ranked opponent in a four-game portion of the schedule. Having lost to Notre Dame at home and Florida St. on the road, Duke needs to justify its national relevance.

The ‘Noles scored the game’s final 21 points as Duke quarterback Riley Leonard reinjured his right ankle. Leonard (981 passing yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions) is questionable to play against Louisville as of this writing. 

Running back Jordan Water (465 rushing yards, nine touchdowns) and wideout Jalon Calhoun (25 receptions, 379 yards) are the leaders on offense.

Louisville Not Perfect

As was mentioned, Louisville lost its first game of the season last out, an implosion in the second half at Pitt. Louisville has scored this season (30.3 points per game), though stymied (22.3 points/game) in its last three.

Quarterback Jack Plummer (1,901 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, eight interceptions) has been quite the wild card this season.

Running back Jawhar Jordan (661 rushing yards, eight touchdowns) and wide receiver Jamari Thrash (39 receptions, 639 yards, six touchdowns) have had no trouble finding the end zone thus far.

Intriguing to see how the Cards perform coming out of a “bye” week.

It’s the Devils

Louisville’s twice as probable as Duke (7-1 [+700] versus 14-1 [+1400]) to win the ACC, as per college football conference odds.

Louisville was blown out by an inferior team in Pittsburgh, and we are expecting some sort of malaise here. Duke isn’t going to have a ton of success on offense, especially with a quarterback issue in flux. It will, as we see it, create some separation in this game.

Take the Duke Blue Devils (+155) to win outright Saturday afternoon. Go under, too.