NCAAF No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 17 Duke Free Picks

It’s the 11th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) traveling to Durham, N.C., to oppose the undefeated (4-0) No. 17 Duke Blue Devils Saturday evening.

The Irish fell out of the Top 10 in the rankings, a self-inflicted 17-14 home loss to Ohio St. the culprit last week. The Fighting Irish can still get to the College Football Playoffs, but can’t afford to lose another.

Duke slapped around Clemson in its opener, with a haughty +114 point differential thus far this season.

Though this would be a conference game in basketball, there’s limited interaction on the gridiron. Notre Dame has a 5-2 lead in the all-time series (the last meeting was 2020).

It’s the visitors as 5½-point favorites (total at 52½), according to college football odds.

Moneyline is Notre Dame -205, Duke at +172. 

Irish Implode at Home

Ohio St. was ripe to be had a week ago in South Bend, but Notre Dame could not close the sale in the last second. A poor combination of failed stops on defense, penalties and an insufficient number of players on the field doomed it, 17-14. 

Quarterback Sam Hartman, ex of Wake Forest, is no stranger to playing against the ACC. Hartman has more than 12,000 yards passing this season (14 touchdowns, no interceptions). Notre Dame is averaging 470 yards of offense to date, as Audric Estime (591 yards, 7.7 yards/carry, five touchdowns) leads the backs.

However, Hartman (175 passing yards) and Estime (70 rush yards) come off subpar efforts against the Buckeyes, and now face another difficult test.

Defensively, the Irish are surrendering just 286.6 yards per game, and did a reasonably good job containing Ohio St.

Bedeviling the Opposition

Duke hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in a single game this season, seven in three of those wins. It surrenders 297.3 yards per game, as both the Irish (11th) and Blue Devils (17th) rank among the best in that category.  

Quarterback Riley Leonard (778 yards, two touchdowns) is not the downfield threat of his opposite number, but is efficient.

Jordan Waters (258 yards) leads the rushers, while Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore each have 20 receptions this season. 

Take the Visitors

If you’re a believer, Notre Dame is 16-1 (+1600) to win the title, while Duke is priced at 150-1 (+15000), as per college football championship odds.

Concerning this week, we don’t see Duke stopping the run game of Notre Dame.

The Irish are not happy after blowing a statement game against Ohio St. last out. They will be out to get things back on track, eying a return to the top 10 in the rankings 

Bet the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5 ½ at Duke. Go under, too.