Should You Consider Betting Alabama to Win the National Championship Now?

At this time a week ago, the Alabama Crimson Tide were not the media’s nor sports handicapper’s darling team. They had lost at home to Texas then struggled on the road at South Florida. In fact, Alabama was tied with the Bulls at halftime before being able to secure the 27-17 win.

Nick Saban had himself a quarterback carousel on his hands. He was juggling between Jalen Milroe and Tyler Buchner. Even red shirt freshman Ty Simpson was getting game time. Historically, rotating quarterbacks is not a good thing. It wasn’t clear which quarterback was good enough to lead the Tide full time. 

Mid last week Saban announced that Jalen Milroe would get the start vs #14 Mississippi. Apparently, the young man was having a good week of practice and Alabama staff agreed that he gave them the best shot at winning. Alabama was -7 point favorites at home vs the Rebels.

Our Pick and Futures Play

We posted our free pick this past Saturday on FreePicksUSA.com – We chose Alabama -7 points. We believed strongly that Alabama was poised to win this game, and easily. At halftime it didn’t look great but our pick won easily in the second half (final score 24-10). The Tide seem to be a second half team this year. Something to remember if you are a bettor of second halves.

Privately we also bet on Alabama to win the national championship at +4650 moneyline odds. Our thinking is that Alabama is solidifying itself as the season marches forward. They believe they found their guy at QB. They have an excellent defense when healthy. They can legit win out the rest of their schedule should they play well. Their toughest two games (Tennessee & LSU) are at home and Georgia hasn’t played all that great this year either. They were ranked #3 in the nation just a few weeks ago with this same roster. 

How to Bet Futures

The way we bet national championship futures is not necessarily taking the team we think will win it all. The idea is to have multiple bets going at once. We bet teams with value. All of them have a legitimate shot to cash but their payout odds are important. We will not bet a team +300 or +550 at the start of the year. That is ridiculous. We look for the great teams who stumble early and still have a chance to win it all. Or, if you are good enough to back a horse like TCU early last season when they were +15000, you can start hedging them once they make it into the playoffs.

Imagine placing a measly hundred bucks on TCU after week two or three last year and having a chance to cash $15,000 going into that championship game. Of course, you wouldn’t let it all ride. You would have bet at least a few grand on the Georgia moneyline in that game and came home with a nice chunk of change regardless of who won. 

Should I Bet Alabama to Win it All Now?

After just one win the odds dropped from +4650 at Sportsbetting.ag to to just +3300. However, if you line shop you can find better offerings if you are looking to bet on this team. BetUS.com has Bama still paying out at +4000. Yes, I think the value is still excellent at +4000. If they win out and get the playoffs spot you can start hedging. If they lose again you are only out a small bet. Bet small to win big.

Who Do We Think Will Be in the National Championship Game?

At the moment we are looking at the Wolverines of Michigan as being the best team in football. If Alabama makes it to that big game and faces Michigan you can bet it will be a good one. In that case we could see Michigan being slightly favored. If you have your Bama futures bet already locked in, you could bet on the Michigan moneyline for half of your potential Alabama winnings and boom, sit back and enjoy the game with guaranteed money in the bank. This is all highly speculative of course.