NFL Miami at New England SNF Free Pick

The final Sunday game of the NFL season’s second week is an evening affair in Foxboro, where the Miami Dolphins oppose the New England Patriots in an AFC East battle

Miami was a 36-34 “shootout” winner over the Chargers in Inglewood, while the Pats remain home after a 25-20 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Miami is leading the all-time series, 60-55 (including three postseason games).

It’s the Dolphins as field-goal favorites (total at 46½), according to NFL odds.

Moneyline is Miami -160, New England priced at +140.

Miami is the 7-5 (+140) co-choice to win the East, while New England is the 9-1 (+900) rank outsider, as per NFL division odds. 

Fish Were Biting

The Miami Dolphins shredded the Los Angeles Chargers to the tune of 536 yards in a 36-34 win to begin the season. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (466 yards, three touchdowns) outdueled Bolt counterpart Justin Herbert, hitting Tyreek Hill with a four-yard scoring pass in the final two minutes.

Wide receiver Hill is on a mission to crack 2,000 receiving yards in 2023, and an 11-catch, 215 yard effort was indeed a very good start to his season. There are so many weapons on this Miami team. Seven different Fish caught at least two passes.

There were just 70 rushing yards, however. Miami will need to find some balance on offense, or the Patriots will “cheat” in the secondary.

Defensively, the Dolphins had some issues, as the Chargers had 462 yards of offense. Outscoring the opposition in wild fashion can only work so often, so the Dolphins obviously need to solidify that side of the ball. 

Pats Not Dissimilar

Just as the Miami Dolphins played one-dimensional football in their opener, so did the New England Patriots. They lost, however. 

Quarterback Mac Jones heaved it 54 times last Sunday, completing 35 (316 yards, three touchdowns). Those New England teams of yore (see Tom Brady) never threw it as much (granted, those teams were playing with leads much of the time).

Brady was feted at halftime last Sunday, the team retiring his No. 12.

Running back Ezekiel Elliott, in his Pats’ debut, led the team with just 29 rushing yards.

New England’s defense basically did its job, albeit in a losing effort. It surrendered just 267 yards to the defending conference champs

The Patriots are convinced Jones is the man at quarterback, but enlisting him to throw on virtually every down is not prudent. Miami’s susceptible defense should afford New England some options on offense.

Nod to Visitors

Playing at home is going to help the New England Patriots, but only so much. They will again offer a good defensive game plan behind Bill Belichick, but won’t be able to slow the Miami Dolphins over the course of the game.

Miami won’t have the sort of offensive success against this team as it did against the porous Bolts, but the Dolphins can score in a hurry, with weapons the Pats can’t match.

Take the Dolphins -3, and the over (46½) as well.