Sports Bettors Make These Common Wrong Assumptions

Sports bettors have it tough enough already. They don’t need to complicate things by making the wrong assumptions over and over again. Somehow, they continue to do so. In this post we examine the most common wrong assumptions made in the sports betting industry today.

Key Points

– Sports bettors put far too much value on the wrong things.

– Sports bettors should not base betting decisions solely on one factor.

The Losing Bettor

Some characteristics are common among losers in sports betting. Unsurprisingly, they lose more bets than they win. Making too many incorrect assumptions is one of the main causes of this.

When placing a wager on a sporting event, one must weigh the facts to determine which ones are crucial and which ones are not. 

It is challenging to win money wagering on sports even when your facts are firmly established and validated. Bettors who attempt to base their choices on assumptions rather than facts frequently find themselves in trouble. 

You are setting yourself up for failure even if you only stake a small amount of money on a small portion of your predictions. Too many presumptions lack a solid foundation in reality. For the typical bettor, that is the main issue. 

Sports Bettors Put Too Much Value on Players

A common error made by public bettors is placing excessive value on a well-known athlete. The general betting public loves famous athletes. These gamblers think that these athletes have a big impact on their teams and the games they play. 

While this is true, public bettors overemphasize this influence. They think a star performer can win games by themselves. They think the team is doomed when a player like this is injured.

Changes in betting odds frequently reflect these beliefs. This is amplified if the player plays a key position. For instance, the quarterback in football or the point guard in basketball are the most important positions in their respective sports. 

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Team Strength

Some teams are consistently regarded as being the best. There are others that are consistently bad. For instance, the Pirates in MLB are consistently regarded as one of the worst teams in the majors. Conversely, bettors will have a more favorable opinion of the Yankees and Dodgers. 

The Pirates occasionally perform better than expected, at least in terms of betting. Additionally, there are instances where betting on the Yankees or Dodgers results in a string of defeats. Because of this, gamblers should occasionally think about betting against the public.

Consider the following. The majority of bettors would initially predict a win for the Dodgers over the Pirates. Without doing more research, the lazy sports bettor will place a bet on Los Angeles. That is a serious error and a common misconception among bettors. 

If you are looking for current MLB futures that have value, check out this article.

The Big Ego

Too frequently, gamblers believe they are better than they actually are. They have an excessive amount of ego and think they can bet on sports as well as experts. They will stray from their money management plans and wager more than they can afford to lose.

Losing gamblers will continue to place the same type of wager because they think they will succeed. They think they have an advantage over others when they don’t. As a result, they lose more often.

You can’t just assume that you are an expert sports bettor who knows everything. Put in the effort, hunt for bargains, and place wagers that have a chance of paying off. Anything else would be erroneous.

Sports Bettors Overvalue Home Field Advantage

Home court or home field advantage does exist. Some teams perform better at home in front of their own supporters. Some teams perform better at home when their routine is unbroken. 

The problem, however, is that the typical bettor places too much emphasis on the home team. Because they are aware of this, sportsbooks factor it into their odds. Bettor mistakes include doing this when placing wagers on the NBA playoffs.

Consider the Lakers, a 3.5-point home favorite. The public adores well-known teams like the Lakers, and sportsbooks are aware. Books are also aware of the public’s affinity for home teams. Sportsbooks will make the Lakers a 5.5-point favorite instead of LA -3.5, and the public will still place bets on them.

This is a grave error. A team won’t necessarily perform better just because they are playing at home. It does not imply that they will win or cover the point spread. Do your research to find out if the point spread is valid. The location is just one piece of the puzzle. Do not overestimate it.

Too Much Focus on Matchups

When analyzing a game for handicapping purposes, matchups are a crucial component. But all too frequently, generalizations about these matchups are made with little regard for other factors.

Consider an NBA game between a strong defensive team and an offensively average team. The presumption is that because of the opposition’s subpar offense, the defensive team will dominate the opposition. 

Bettors might overlook the fact that one of the NBA’s slowest paces is the cause of the offense’s subpar performance. A bettor might want to consider how this team performed against defensive teams with a similar style. It might be a good idea for bettors to learn how to identify underrated NBA teams.

Sports betting decisions should never be made based solely on one simple premise. Making assumptions about matchups can lead sports bettors to move directly counter to how you should be moving.