Ohio State vs Michigan Point Spread and Analysis
Scott Morris | November 21, 2022
The big showdown that both teams have been anticipating happens this week when the Wolverines of Michigan visit the Buckeyes of Ohio State’s famed horseshoe. Both teams are undefeated and will basically be playing for a playoff spot. In this article we will take a look at the opening point spread and what it is currently. We will also take a deeper dive into the matchup numbers and try to make a pick against the spread.
The game itself kicks off at noon EST and can be viewed on ABC. Michigan is currently ranked #3 in the nation and are behind #2 Ohio State. The #1 spot belongs to Georgia. The line was issued at Ohio State -8 and it has stayed -8 since being issued. The total , or over-under, is 57 points. AS of this moment 62% of the action has come in on the underdog Wolverines.
History
As you may know, the matchup is a very old one but has been dominated by Ohio State in modern years. The Buckeyes had won 8 in a row before they dropping last year’s matchup 42-27. Before that Michigan was just 1-14 straight up against the Buckeye in the last 15 years. It was an abysmal run for what is supposed to be a rivalry. Ohio State leads the series 52–47–4 through the 2021 meeting.
Here is a table with historical data of these two teams:
| Team | Michigan | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| National titles | 13 | 5 |
| CFP appearances | 20 | 13 |
| Bowl appearances | 49 | 53 |
| Postseason bowl record | 28–21 | 26–27 |
| Rose Bowl appearances | 25 | 16 |
| Rose Bowl wins | 18 | 4 |
| Big Ten divisional titles[66] | 24 | 10 |
| Big Ten titles | 43 | 39 |
| Consensus All-Americans | 85 | 90 |
| Heisman Trophies[67] | 14 | 6 |
| All-time program record | 994–352–36 | 919–327–53 |
| All-time win percentage | .756 | .730 |
Handicapping the Game
When handicapping a game we tend to assign a spread in our mind based on if the teams were meeting at a neutral location. The number we can up with was OSU -6. We then add the 3 points for home field advantage which means the line should be OSU -9. So, there is mild advantage to taking OSU -8.
Although the public is betting the Michigan Wolverines more at the moment (62%/38%) there is a lot of time left between now and the game. So, there simply is no play to be made based on public action.
The total is about right and we have no play on it either.
Side by Side Stats for the 2022 Season
| Name | Record | ATS | Offense | Defense | Diff | ATS Home | ATS Away | OU Record | OU Home | OU Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 11-0 | 6-4-1 | 39.36 | 11.73 | 27.64 | 4-3-1 | 2-1 | 2-8-1 | 1-6-1 | 1-2 |
| Ohio State | 11-0 | 5-5-1 | 46.45 | 16.91 | 29.55 | 4-2-1 | 1-3 | 8-3 | 5-2 | 3-1 |
As you can see, Michigan has been better on defense but OSU is stronger on offense, which makes this matchup even better. OSU is 4-2-1 ATS at home and Michigan is 2-1 ATS on the road.
Here are trends for each team coming into this game:
Michigan
Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Michigan’s last 12 games on the road
Michigan is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Ohio State
Michigan is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Ohio State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan’s last 5 games when playing Ohio State
Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ohio State
Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ohio State
Ohio State
Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ohio State’s last 5 games at home
Ohio State is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Michigan
Ohio State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ohio State’s last 5 games when playing Michigan
Ohio State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Michigan
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Michigan
Pick
Based on our early instinct that the line should be -9 and the fact that OSU is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 vs Michigan we are going with a light play on OSU at home.
Where to Bet
You can bet this game at one of our highest rated sportsbooks knowing that you will get treated well and your money is safe and payouts are guaranteed.
