Look for These Key Factors When Betting Bowl Games

The 2021 college football bowl season is underway and 44 games, including the College Football Playoff, will take place over the next few weeks. Wagering on bowl games can be a bit trickier than regular season games. If you are searching for bowl betting success, you should look at these key factors before making any decisions.

Who’s In & Who’s Out?

It’s that time of year when coaches start jumping around on the coaching carousel. We have seen some huge moves already like Lincoln Riley going from Oklahoma to USC and Brian Kelly from Notre Dame to LSU. These coaching moves also spawn some player moves as well. 

A number of players entered the transfer portal looking for greener grass somewhere else. Then, there are your players that simply opt out of a bowl game because they don’t want to risk an injury prior to their preparation for the NFL draft. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett, for example, will not play for the Panthers when they take on Michigan State in the Peach Bowl.

You have to know who’s in and who’s out, both from a coaching and player standpoint, before making a wager on a bowl game. Pickett’s absence will surely affect the Panthers performance in the Peach Bowl.

Watch Early Conference Results

Take a look and see how conferences are doing in their early bowl games. This isn’t always an indicator of how teams will play, but one conference sticks out against the spread recently. 

Bettors love to fade the MAC. That might not be all that great a proposition as the MAC is 7-4-1 ATS in bowl games over the past two seasons. That includes a 1-2 ATS mark thus far this season. There are still four MAC teams left to play. Keep an eye on them.

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Motivation is a Factor

There are times when a team gets a bowl invitation that it really isn’t excited about. Then, there are teams that are truly motivated to win their bowl game. The service academies – Army, Navy, and Air Force – are always motivated. Those three teams have combined to cover the spread over 70 percent of the time in their bowl games over the past 40 years.

Teams that want to finish the season over .500 are motivated as well. That’s very true when the team is the underdog in their bowl game. Teams that enter a bowl game at 6-6 as the underdog are 45-25-1 ATS. 

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Watch Double-Digit Dogs

Double Digit Favorites Coastal Carolina Didn’t Cover the Spread

When you see an early bowl game with a double-digit favorite, it’s typically because the favorite is the better team. The thing is that they may be playing in a lower-tier bowl and not happy about it. Again, there’s that motivation factor.

Double-digit underdogs are 41-30 ATS in non-playoff bowl games since 2005. Take Northern Illinois this year as an example. The Huskies, the MAC champs, were 12-point underdogs in the Cure Bowl against Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers would ultimately prevail but by just six points. 

Don’t be afraid to wager on double-digit dogs on the moneyline either. They win enough – 18-52 since 2005 – to make finding the right underdog worthwhile.