Sportsbooks Stand to Lose Big if Georgia Wins and Covers the Spread

Without question the biggest game of the weekend is the SEC Championship featuring #1 Georgia vs #4 Alabama. This game has many implications. For the schools themselves it will decide who gets into the four team national playoff picture. Though some argue if it is a close game either team could lose and both would still get in. But sportsbooks will be sweating this game as well and BIG.

Some sportsbooks do us the favor of letting us know what kind of exposure they have on a side. EveryGame sportsbook is one of those. They are exposed heavily on Georgia -6 points, perhaps moreso than other books. Pick monitor websites have the general public backing the Bulldogs to the tune of 68% but at EveryGame reports a whopping 94% of the action is on Georgia (see graphic below). I am sure they will get some Alabama tomorrow but not enough to get a more even exposure. It may be a good idea to lay off some of that action. Bankrolls at sportsbooks are usually large enough to absorb the entire bet however.

Click or tap to enlarge

Georgia has been an unstoppable force this season only having one close game, their opening game at Clemson which they won 10-3. However, if any team has a shot at defeating Georgia it is Alabama. They are conference foes with a long history. If you recall Alabama came from behind to beat Georgia in the national championship game a few years ago.  That was the game where they put Tua Tagovailoa in after halftime and he cemented his legend at Tuscaloosa.

Stats

Georgia scores 42 PPG and allows only 6 PPG. Bama scores the same amount on offense but has allowed 19 PPG. Against the spread Georgia is 8-4 and Alabama is 6-6.

Head to Head

In the last ten meetings between these two teams Alabama leads 7-3. Alabama is only 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Georgia but Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Georgia.

Spread

When pondering this game last weekend we hung a proposed spread of Georgia -7.5 points. The line actually was published at Georgia -6.5 points. We thought it may move some and it did, but in the opposite direction. The line came down to Georgia -6 at many shops. From this point of view there is value on this line. But, our thinking is also that if any team could take down Georgia or keep it very close, that team is Alabama.

Pick

We don’t have a real pick in this game. On one hand we see the spread as being a tad low. On the other we see an “against the public” type play here. We are torn down the middle. So, what are you going to bet? Are you going to back the undefeated team who has been beating teams by an average of 36 PPG? Or are you going to ride your money on the same side the sportsbooks will be rooting and go against the public? Best bet is probably to sit this one out and enjoy the game.