Ravens vs Chiefs Free Pick

If you’re keeping score, it’s Patrick Mahomes 3, Lamar Jackson 0. Yes, two of the premier young quarterbacks in the NFL have faced each other three times in their young careers and Mahomes has gotten the better of Jackson in all three games. 

Both quarterbacks have an NFL MVP to their name. Mahomes has a Super Bowl MVP to go along with his Super Bowl ring. Jackson doesn’t have any of that hardware, but this Sunday night he would just like to get a much-needed win for he and his teammates. The Ravens lost in Week 1 in dramatic fashion losing to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night in overtime.

A second consecutive loss could spell doom for Baltimore. Teams that begin an NFL season 0-2 have reached the Super Bowl just 12 percent of the time. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh understands that getting the Chiefs at home is an opportunity that cannot be squandered. Baltimore has done very well at home going 12-4 at M&T Bank Stadium over the past two seasons. One of the four losses was to Kansas City.

Baltimore began Week 1’s game with the Raiders in Ravens-esque style. They jumped out to a 14-0 lead and shut down the Las Vegas offense. Then, they let Raiders QB Derek Carr get hot. Carr would finish the game completing 34-of-56 passes for 435 yards and two touchdowns. The second of those scoring passes went to WR Zay Jones in overtime and gave the Raiders the win. 

If the Ravens are going to beat the Chiefs, they are going to have to at least slow down their juggernaut of an offense. Last week, Mahomes led a furious second-half comeback as KC beat Cleveland 33-29. Mahomes finished 27-of-36 for 337 yards and three scores. Two of those touchdown passes went to TE Travis Kelce (6-76) and the other went to WR Tyreek Hill who had 11 catches for 197 yards. Somehow, Baltimore needs to limit the big plays that are synonymous with the Chiefs offense.

Kansas City is one of the better road teams in the NFL. Under head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs always seem to play well away from Arrowhead Stadium. Over the past two seasons, the Chiefs are 15-1 on the road. That includes a perfect 8-0 in 2020. Kansas City has won at Baltimore recently too, so playing at M&T Bank Stadium will not bother the Chiefs.

What the Chiefs have had a hard time doing is covering spreads. They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Against Baltimore though, Kansas City has been the team to back. The Chiefs are 4-1 straight up and against the spread in their last five games with Baltimore. KC is also 5-1 ATS when playing the Ravens in Baltimore.

Baltimore has had more success than KC in covering spreads. The Ravens had covered in seven straight games before they lost in last season’s playoff to Buffalo. Of course, last week the Ravens were a three-point favorite at Las Vegas. They were one of nine favorites to lose in Week 1.

There is also the total to consider. The total opened at 53.5 but has been bet up to 55. Both of these offenses are among the better units in the NFL. Baltimore did lose its top three running backs – JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill – to injury, but Jackson is as good as any running back in the league. Tyson Williams and Latavius Murray combined for 93 yards against the Raiders, so the Baltimore running game should be fine.

In the three games these two teams have played over the past three seasons, the average score has been 31.3-24 in favor of Kansas City, of course. The Over is 4-1 in the Ravens last five home games. Monday night’s game with the Raiders also went Over. The Over is 6-3 in Kansas City’s last nine games and three of the last four Ravens-Chiefs games have seen the total go Over.

Expect the Ravens to play better than they did in the second half in Las Vegas. Despite losing running backs and losing in Week 1, expect Baltimore to do whatever it can to avoid going 0-2. That means they have to keep this one close.

BEST BET:  RAVENS +3.5

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