Tampa Bay Odds to Repeat as Champions and Analysis

If you were fortunate enough to jump on the Tampa Bay bandwagon last offseason as soon as the franchise announced the free agent acquisition of future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady, good for you. The nice payout of roughly +1200 was a great move, but you won’t get those odds again. The Bucs are among the favorites to win Super Bowl LVI.

Kansas City, the team Brady and the Bucs beat in last year’s Super Bowl, is the +350 favorite heading into the 2021. Tampa Bay follows at +500 and is the only other team in the league given odds less than +1000 to win. The big question is can they repeat and win a second straight Lombardi Trophy?

Not Likely

If you base your analysis of Tampa Bay’s chances at repeating on history, you’d say the Bucs don’t have a chance. Sure, the city’s Tampa Bay Lightning just accomplished the feat in the NHL, but a repeat champion in the NFL hasn’t happened since 2003-04. 

The last team to win two consecutive Super Bowls was the New England Patriots. The Pats beat Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII and then won again the following year defeating Philadelphia in Super Bowl XXXIX. But wait…wasn’t Brady the Patriots quarterback?

The Brady Effect

That is correct. Brady led the Patriots to consecutive Super Bowl wins in 2003 and ’04. He is, and will forever be, the greatest to have played the game. He is still playing at an extremely high-level despite being 44 years old. He had one of his best seasons just last year at 43. He threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns. He added another 1,061 yards and 10 TDs and captured yet another Super Bowl MVP in 2020.

Even more valuable than his play at quarterback is probably Brady’s leadership. Guys like Brady, WR Mike Evans, and DT Ndamukong Suh prove invaluable simply by the ability to help younger players get through tough times in a season. Brady simply instills a winning attitude in all those around him. That alone can lead Tampa Bay to repeat in 2021.

Injuries

There is always a little bit of luck involved in winning a Super Bowl. Part of it has to do with staying healthy. Football is a brutal game and injuries are going to happen. It was revealed after last season that Brady apparently played all of 2020 with a tear in his MCL. The Bucs didn’t have DT Vita Vea for the better part of the regular season, but he returned in the postseason. Both Evans and WR Chris Godwin battled through some issues last season.

Dallas lost Dak Prescott last year. The Giants lost RB Saquon Barkley for the season in Week 2. The 49ers 2020 season was essentially wiped out by injuries. It’s bound to happen and a key injury here or there could ruin Tampa Bay’s chances at a repeat.

Roster Stability

In today’s free agency, it is unlikely for a team to have the same exact roster in two consecutive seasons. The Bucs probably won’t have the same identical roster either, but it will be pretty close. For the first time in the NFL since the introduction of the salary cap, a Super Bowl champion will return all 22 starters on both sides of the ball. 

In addition, the Bucs will have virtually its entire coaching staff back intact. Head coach Bruce Arians enters his third season and returns both his offensive coordinator, Byron Leftwich, and defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles. That stability goes a long way in carrying over the success of one season to the next.

The Schedule

The Tampa Bay 2021 schedule might be the easiest in recent memory for a Super Bowl champ. With Drew Brees retirement in New Orleans, the Bucs might sweep the NFC South. Last season, Tampa Bay went 4-2 in the division. Both losses were to the Saints. 

The Bucs then drew the NFC East and the AFC East. The NFC East, known last year as the NFL Least, did not have a team finish over .500 in 2020. Dallas should be better with Dak Prescott back in the lineup, but the defense still has to get better.

Besides Buffalo, the AFC East isn’t all that scary either. Miami is on the rise, but the Dolphins are unproven. All of the Bucs toughest games outside of the division – Cowboys, Dolphins, Bears, and Bills – are all at home. With that schedule, Brady at quarterback, and the entire starting 22 returning; it’s easy to see why Tampa Bay at +500 is worth the action. Those odds will most certainly shorten when the Bucs start winning game after game.