2021 Belmont Stakes Odds and Picks
Scott Morris | June 1, 2021
The big news, of course, heading into the 153rd running of the Belmont Stakes is that all horses trained by Bob Baffert have been banned from racing. Baffert trained Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit, but the horse tested positive for a banned steroid. Medina Spirit is still waiting for a second test that will determine whether or not the horse is disqualified from the Kentucky Derby.
As a result of the whole mess, no Baffert horses are permitted at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y. That means the field for Saturday’s race will consist of eight. The final leg of the Triple Crown will start at 6:49 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at the odds and a pick to win.
The Field
The eight-horse field begins with Essential Quality, the former favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. Essential Quality will start in Post 2 and is a +200 favorite to win the 1.5-mile race.
Rombauer (+300), Hot Rod Charlie (+350), Rock Your World (+450) and Known Agenda (+600) are the other horses given odds of less than +1000 to win.
Essential Quality ended up fourth in the Kentucky Derby but opened as the early favorite. Rombauer won the Preakness at +1100 odds to win. Hot Rod Charlie finished third at Churchill Downs but did not run the Preakness. Rock Your World won three straight races at Santa Anita Park early this year but got bumped at the start of the Kentucky Derby and wound up 17th. Known Agenda was ninth at Churchill Downs.
The other three horses in the race are all longshots. Bourbonic is listed at +1500, Overtook at +2000, and France Go de Ina is the longest of the longshots at +3000.
You can see live updated Odds and bet any of these horses at the best sportsbooks online
Belmont History
If there is a prevailing theme at Belmont, it is to expect the unexpected. Over the past 15 to 20 years there have been plenty of surprise winners at the Belmont Stakes. Last year’s race was a surprise in that it was shortened from the traditional 1½ miles to 1⅛ miles. It was also surprising that favorite Tiz the Law won.
In the last 14 non-Triple Crown Belmont Stakes races (meaning no horse could win a Triple Crown), the race favorite has won just three times. Tiz the Law’s victory last year was one. Point Given won in 2001 and Afleet Alex won in 2005. For the most part, long shots have been very good to bettors over the years at Belmont.
In 2011, Ruler on Ice won with odds of +2400. The 2008 Belmont saw Da’Tara win at odds of +3800 and the longest of all longshots since 2000, Sarava, won in 2002 given pre-race odds of +7000. That’s a nice payout at the Belmont. With all that in mind, it’s time to pick a winner this year.
Belmont Stakes Winner
With favorite Tiz the Law having won last year, it’s doubtful Essential Quality wins this year. The horse was 5-for-5 before finishing fourth at the Kentucky Derby. Essential Quality is the son of Tapit, who sired three Belmont Stakes winners. Jockey Luis Saez has never won at Belmont in five tries.
Rombauer has placed first, second, or third in three Grade I and II races, but his best performance was the win at the Preakness. Hot Rod Charlie probably doesn’t have the strength to pull off a win at 1.5-miles. Known Agenda is more suited to the Belmont distance and trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont Stakes three times and finished second six more times.
Taking a look at the longshots, Overtook and France Go de Ina just don’t seem to have the pedigree or the stamina to beat the rest of the field. If there is a longshot that could surprise everyone, it’s likely Bourbonic. This is another Pletcher horse who shocked the field at the Wood Memorial winning at +7200 odds. It’s the first Belmont start for jockey Kendrick Carmouche.
That leaves Rock Your World who is 3-for-4 with an impressive win over Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit in the Santa Anita Derby. Rock Your World has outstanding top end speed and will want to make up for the poor Kentucky Derby finish. The horse will be ridden by jockey Joel Rosario who has finished in the money in 6-of-9 Belmont starts. Rosario has two wins in the last eight years riding horses given odds of +1000 or higher.
BEST BET: ROCK YOUR WORLD (+450)
