Odds on Aaron Rodgers’ Next Team

It was the biggest story of the 2021 NFL draft weekend. Aaron Rodgers is unhappy with his situation in Green Bay and wants out. It was first reported by Adam Schefter on ESPN just a few hours before the 2021 draft started last Thursday.

The word is that Rodgers, the reigning NFL MVP, does not want to return to Green Bay because of his frustration with the Packers’ front office. Some of that frustration is likely due to what happened at last year’s draft. Packers GM traded up to pick QB Jordan Love at No. 26. Love did not take a snap all season.

Regardless of Rodgers’ reasoning, the fact is that the news that he doesn’t want to play in Green Bay next season has already sent shockwaves through the NFL futures market. Bettors can also get in on the Rodgers’ sweepstakes and wager on where the NFL MVP will end up.

Changes in Super Bowl Odds

The announcement that Rodgers doesn’t want to return to Green Bay threw a wrinkle into the Super Bowl LVI futures market. The Packers front office released a statement almost immediately saying they had no intention of trading Rodgers and that he is their quarterback heading into 2021.

Still, the Packers Super Bowl LVI odds went from +1200 to +1600. Kansas City is still the overall favorite at +575 with reigning champion Tampa Bay right behind at +600. Buffalo, the Los Angeles Rams and, prior to the news, Green Bay were all listed at +1200. Now, it’s just the Bills and Rams. These odds can be found at BetOnline.ag

The biggest move in the market belongs to the Denver Broncos. With the news of Rodgers’ dissatisfaction announced, the rumors began flying around and the biggest was a Rodgers-to-Denver move. Former second-round pick Drew Lock has been somewhat of a disappointment and the Broncos really haven’t had a solid starting quarterback since Peyton Manning retired in 2015.

Denver did not go after a quarterback with the No. 9 pick in the draft giving many reason to believe they are chasing down Rodgers. With the rumor mill in full swing, Denver has now received the third-most Super Bowl bets. The Broncos odds, which were as high as +6500 a little over a week ago, now sit at +2000. Only the Chiefs and Buccaneers have received more bets to win next season’s Super Bowl.

The Market for Rodgers

There are a few items worth mentioning before diving into where Rodgers might end up and the odds on his next team. First is the Green Bay quarterback’s contract. Rodgers signed it in 2018, a four-year, $134 million extension that puts him under contract until 2023. Rodgers salary cap hit is $37.2 million this season and if not with the Packers in 2021, he carries a dead money cap hit of $38.36 million.

That’s a lot of incentive for Green Bay to keep Rodgers, at least through this season. That dead salary cap hit drops to $17.2 million in 2022. It’s even lower – $2.85 million – in 2023. There is a bit more to it as the Packers could trade Rodgers after June 1 this year and save on some of this year’s cap hit. For the most part though, there is more incentive for Green Bay to keep Rodgers rather than trade him.

As a result, it’s not surprising that the favorite to land Rodgers in 2021 is his current team – the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are listed at -150.

Not surprisingly, next on the list is Denver at +200. The Broncos have the pieces in place to be competitive. Head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive mastermind and took another lockdown corner in Patrick Surtain II with the ninth pick in this year’s draft. What Denver lacks is a bona fide championship caliber quarterback on offense. The Broncos have a solid running game and a number of outstanding young receivers including Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and K.J. Hamler to name a few.

With Rodgers hailing from Northern California, it’s been mentioned that he would love to return home. That would mean playing for San Francisco, the team closest to Rodgers hometown of Chico. That isn’t likely to happen as the 49ers still have Jimmy Garoppolo on the roster and traded up to draft Trey Lance with the No. 3 pick in the draft.

Formerly of the Bay area, the Raiders actually check in next as the only other team with odds lower than +1000. Las Vegas is given +600 odds to be Rodgers’ next team, but head coach Jon Gruden seemed content with starter Derek Carr.

The only other teams that would likely be in the race for Rodgers would be New Orleans (+1000) where Drew Brees retired and Washington (+1400). Alex Smith retired leaving the Football Team with Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen, so Washington went out and signed journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Landing Rodgers would be a big upgrade.