Week 15 NFL Opening Lines and Early Leans
Scott Morris | December 14, 2020
Every week we publish our own guestimated point spreads along side of the actual official point spreads released by top online sportsbooks. The purpose of that aspect is to squeeze any value out of the lines by betting early.
Last week our early leans went just 2-3 but the wins were ones which no one saw coming. We got Jax and Detroit correct. Unfortunately, we bought into the newfound San Fran hype, which btw still exists (as evidenced by the line this week SF at Dallas). We also thought that the Raiders would bounce back from their recent slump. Their defense just isn’t any good. We accept that now.
As this week’s matches shake out, just about every team will still be playing full force. Teams don’t typically start sitting starters until week week 17.
| Matchup | Our Guess | Official Line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV vs SD | LV -3 | LV -3 | NO |
| DEN vs BUF | BUF -3.5 | BUF -6 | YES (DEN +6) |
| GB vs CAR | GB -10 | GB -9 | NO |
| TEN vs DET | TEN -10.5 | TEN -10 | NO |
| DAL vs SF | DAL -2 | SF -3 | YES (DAL +3) |
| MIN vs CHI | MIN -2.5 | MIN -3 | NO |
| ATL vs TB | TB -5.5 | TB -5.5 | NO |
| IND vs HOU | IND -8 | IND -7 | NO |
| WAS vs SEA | SEA -4.5 | SEA -5 | NO |
| MIA vs NE | MIA -1.5 | MIA -2 | NO |
| BAL vs JAX | BAL -115.5 | BAL -14 | NO |
| LAR vs NYJ | LAR -20 | LAR -17 | YES (LAR -17) |
| ARZ vs PHI | ARZ -4.5 | ARZ -6 | NO |
| NO vs KC | KC -4.5 | KC -4 | NO |
| NYG vs CLEV | CLEV -5.5 | CLEV -4 | NO |
| PIT vs CIN | PIT -11.5 | PIT -13 | NO |
There are only three early leans this week. Remember these lines most likely will change so if you like them, betting them now to lock in the value is probably a good idea.
