NFL Week 13 Opening Lines and Early Value Plays
Scott Morris | November 30, 2020
Last week’s early line analysis (pick) went 3-4 over all but that is in part due to injury and Covid. Teddy Bridgewater playing in the Vikings game brought that line way down and Denver never had a shot once all their QB’s were out with Covid. The Titans pick was a slam dunk.
This week we have a handful of games in which our opening line doesn’t match the official opening line and there may be early value there. It is important to remember that betting a game early in this strange season can be catastrophic to your bet. But there is a 50/50 chance the Covid protocol will actually help your bet as well.
Try and be careful about betting against and teams every week. The teams will eventually win and/or cover games. There are bettors who simply bet against Cincy, Jacksonville We actually like Jax this week) and NY Jets every week. That may work for a while but will usually bite you in the rear end eventually.
| Game | Our Line | Official Line | Play |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL vs NO | PK | NO 3-5 | YES (ATL) |
| MIA vs CIN | MIA -9.5 | MIA -11 | NO |
| HOU vs IND | IND-2 | IND -2.5 | NO |
| PIT vs WAS | PIT -7.5 | PIT -10.5 | YES (WAS) |
| MIN vs JAX | MIN -7 | MIN -9.5 | YES (JAX) |
| NYJ vs LV | LV -7 | LV -7.5 | NO |
| TEN vs CLE | TEN -4 | TEN -5.5 | NO |
| CHI vs DET | CHI -3.5 | CHI -3.5 | NO |
| ARZ vs LAR | LAR -1 | LAR -3 | YES (ARZ) |
| SEA vs NYG | SEA -7.5 | SEA -8.5 | NO |
| LAC vs NE | N/A | LAC -1 | NO |
| GB vs PHI | GB -6.5 | GB -7 | NO |
| KC vs DEN | N/A | KC -13 | NO |
| DAL vs BALT | N/A | N/A | NO |
| SF vs BUF | N/A | BUF -2.5 | NO |
So there you have it. There are four games where the actual line differs from what we think the line should be enough that they are an early play to make. Here are those plays. Remember, if the line changes in the wrong direction a point or more, it is not a good play.
ATL +3.5
WAS +10.5
JAX +9.5 (buy the point to make +10.5 if you can)
ARZ +3 (buy the half to make +3.5 if you can)
