Miami vs Florida State Preview and Free Pick

On Saturday night at 7:30, September 26, 2020, the renewal of the Miami, Florida vs FSU rivalry will continue. The Seminoles will be visiting South Florida to do battle with Hurricanes. Both teams seem to trending in opposite directions. Miami has been building up and completed a major piece of their puzzle this offseason by signing transfer D’Eriq King. The former Houston Cougar had to get out of Houston where he was subject to a terrible pounding because of of ineffective blocking as well as coaching. He has done nothing but lead Miami to a 2-0 record, one of the wins being at Louisville who is a tough and ranked opponent.

Seminoles players and fans are still reeling after dropping their first and only game to what they see as a lowly rebuilding Georgia Tech team. They were right because the following week GT got smashed by UCF (49-21).

FSU QB James Blackman struggled often and his backup Tate Rodemaker was able to come in and give the team a little bit of spark. Ourlads.com still lists Blackman as the starter but don’t be surprised if he is not.

Miami, FL. and Florida State Head to Head

Lets take a deeper look into the numbers behind this rivalry. When looking at the last ten games played, FSU holds the advantage. But, Miami has won the last three.  Against the spread, the teams are dead even against one another (5-5).

Some others stats about these teams coming into the game Saturday night is that Miami is 19-6 in the last 25 at home. They usually don’t pack the house with fans anyway, so the sparsely populated stadium should not hurt the Canes.

Florida State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games. They are also 2-6 straight up. But, they are 6-1 ATS & SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami-FL. That is food for thought.

Point Spread and Total

When we first analyze a game we assign what we think the spread should be before we ever look at the real number. We look at what the spread would be if played at home and away as well as neutral ground. This helps us center our thoughts on the point spread. We had the following:

If Miami was at FSU they would be favored by 5.5 – If they were at a neutral location they would be favored by -8.5 points – And if they were in Miami, the Canes should be favored by -11.5. But before we looked at the actual number we did some more thinking and figured the public would be all over the Miami number at these number. This fact coupled with the uncertainty at the FSU QB position had us making a last minute alteration. We then went with Miami -7 at FSU, Miami -10 on neutral ground and Miami -13.5 at home. Oh, and the total is 54 points.

The spread was published as Miami -11.5 points. Our very first initial spread was dead on. And, our anticipation of how the betting public would react is also dead on. Currently, 88% of the public money is on the Hurricanes. And the line has not moved. It is very interesting.

Miami FL vs Florida State Pick

Bolden and company have been outstanding in 2020.

This game will come down to defense. In Miami, the defense is good. The secondary is great. Al Blades Jr. is a phenom. Bubba Bolden was a true standout player in their last game at Louisville. He was literally everywhere the ball was. He was out injured last year with a season ending injury and it seems this year he intends to make up for his absence.

It is important to look at how these teams typically play one another. The answer to that is TIGHT. The FSU players and Miami players all come from the same dozen schools and are used to playing one another. They are not afraid to slog it out in the trenches. And this will mostly likely be fought in the trenches with the occasional flash play, but a lot of incomplete passes on both sides. Five of the last six meetings between these two teams was won by 5 points or less. Now add the fact that it is supposed to be raining off and on all day in Miami. This may be a sloppy slug-fest. My guess is that Miami outlasts FSU here and gets the win. But I don’t think Miami covers. So, bet the Seminoles plus the points. Plus, FSU is shaping up to be a great ATP (against the public) type of play. If you are a fan of betting Unders, which many people are not, this may be a decent Under play as well. 54 points is a lot of points, especially if this truly does turn into a trench game. If you like this pick and want to bet it, check out our shortlist of the best sportsbooks found online. They are all time tested and highly monitored.