Chiefs vs Titans Free Pick

We are own to four teams and it feels good to be getting closer to finding out which team will be crowned Super Bowl champion. It is bittersweet however in that football will be finished for all intents and purposes for a half a year.

We picked this game to handicap today because it seems like the tougher one of the two to nail down. So, we are going to go over some stats and some thoughts on the teams and give our free pick against the spread for Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs.

The line is currently sitting at Chiefs -7 points and the total is 53 points at most sportsbooks. There are a few sportsbooks with -7.5 out there as well. The betting action is about even on this one. The total opened at 51 points and has since been bet to 53, most probably because of the game the public watched last saw the Chiefs reaching that total number by themselves.

Tennessee comes into this game 11-7 straight up and against the spread. The fact that they started 2-4 before switching to Ryan Tannehill at QB has been made well known. Tannehill is playing the best football of his career. The Titans are on a three game win streak which include highly improbable wins at New England and at Baltimore.

Kansas City is on a tear in that they have won their last 9 ballgames. The QB and team are healthy and are playing outstanding football. They are the overall favorite to win the Super Bowl at this point.

Trends

Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee.

Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee.

Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games.

Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.

How is this going to play out?

KC’s and Tennessee’s defense has been about even this year. They both allow just under 20 points per game. The Titans offense averages 25 PPG and KC’s offense averages 30 PPG. If you are approaching the game from this strictly statistical viewpoint, and after adding in the 3 point home field advantage, your get K.C. winning by 8 points.

The Chiefs allow 126 yards per game rushing. The Titans will be trying to get their All-Pro diesel RB Derrick Henry going early and often. If the Chiefs can shut him down early and make Tannehill throw, we may see flashes of bad Tannehill from his Miami Dolphins days. Its still in him.

The Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes will more than likely have a good game. This dude seems to thrive under intense situations. And you never know with this guy, he could have a flat first half and then throw four TD’s in the second. He is never out of the game.

Final Evaluation

The trends and stats say that this should be a close game. And even though part of me is saying the Chiefs will come out and hang a huge number on Tennessee like they did the Texans, the stats don’t lie. The smart money is that this will be closer than the point spread. Take the points. It may also be worth a small play on the Under.