NFL Free Pick Arizona at San Francisco
Scott Morris | November 15, 2019
On Sunday November 17, 2019 The Arizona Cardinals will be visiting the San Francisco 49ers to do battle on the grid iron. Online sportsbooks currently have the 49ers favored by 10.5 points and the total is posted at 44.5 points.
The line was issued at the start of the week at San Fran -13.5. Quick action on Arizona had the game taken off the board. The point spread reemerged at San Fran -10.5 points. Public betting action is still lopsided and about 69% of the current money is on the Cardinals.
Arizona is 3-6-1 straight up and is coming off a narrow defeat to Tampa Bay 30-27. The Cards are 7-3 ATS. They are an amazing 4-1 ATS on the road. You can see why the public is liking the birds.
The 49ers are 8-1 straight up and 5-4 ATS. At home they are 2-2 ATS. S.F. is coming off their first loss of the season. They lost to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime last weekend.
The Cardinals offense isn’t bad. They average 22 PPG and they are getting better every week. The mighty mouse of a QB Kyler Murray is a playmaker and he is only getting better with experience. The trouble with Arizona is their defense. They allow 28 PPG. They allows 286 yards passing per game and 126 yards rushing per game. It doesn’t matter who your QB is, he cannot win when his defense is allowing those numbers.
San Francisco, on the other hand, has a fantastic defense. They allow just 14 PPG. They passing defense is outstanding. It allows just 144 passing yards per game! That is unreal. The offense is rushing attack oriented. SF rushes for 161 YPG. They pass for just 218. But that 218 number is an efficient one. QB Jimmy Garappolo is 67% in passing. He has thrown for 14 TD’s and 8 picks.
The betting public is all about “what have you done for me lately?”. They see Arizona go to Tampa and almost win and they then see San Fran lose on primetime TV and they react to that. The bottom line is these teams are worlds apart. Arizona has many flaws at this point. From their game plan to their leaky civ of a defense, the Cardinals have miles to go before they are in the same class as the ‘Niners.
San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona. This is a trend that, on its own, would have you betting Arizona. But, the Cardinals lose by an average of just under 10 points per game when playing a team, with a winning record, on the road. Another reason many people are betting the Cardinals is that San Fran just played at Arizona two games ago and only won by three points (28-25).
Tight End George Kittle is day-to-day. He did not practice this week, so the prognosis is not a good one.
#49ers spokesman says Kyle Shanahan’s intended message to Arizona media was that the team will have to prepare as though George Kittle is not going to play. Although Kittle is unlikely to play, he has NOT been ruled out officially.
— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) November 14, 2019
I am going to buck the trends and take Frisco minus the points here. I feel strongly about this one. The 49ers will have a very disciplined game. They will have a solid game plan. They have been practicing without Kittle for almost two weeks now. They will be able to beat Arizona on every facet of the game. This 49ers team should be able to shellack the red birds.
