Only Wager When You Have a Distinct and Definitive Advantage

Scott Morris | August 20, 2019

“I’m going to the casino today. Hope I break even. I need the money“

-Typical Gambler

Here’s what I see. You should also.

Only wager on sports in which you know you have a distinct advantage.

Most of the public does not have self-control, and should view gambling as entertainment and not as a business.

If you want entertainment and don’t care what it costs, go to a casino.
Casinos are fun.
Casinos have free food, free drinks, and free hotel rooms.
The more you spend, the more free stuff you get.

Let’s visit a casino.

Leave your cerebral abilities at the door, and maybe your whole life will change by pushing a few buttons or guessing a number on a roulette wheel.

Or maybe you’ll get on a winning streak at the blackjack table and be able to increase your wagers and make some real money.

Or Maybe not.

Some of your options.
Slot Machines:
Look around. Most of your short-term neighbors are out of shape and smoke.
The majority have false utilitarian hopes that they can win, when 98% are getting crushed.
You get to mindlessly push buttons waiting for the bonus round that hardly ever comes.

Try to envision watching any old Zombie movie, then look at the lobotomized facial expressions of a slot player. They’re not that different.

Let’s look at some other fun casino “investments”.

Black Jack:
The movie “21” glamorized MIT students who had the unique discipline to do third grade math, but at computer speed.

Did you go to MIT?
Probably not.

Keno:
Is basically a video lottery ticket.
How many of you have won the lottery?

Baccarat, Roulette, Caribbean Stud, etc..
They all take 4% to 7% of your wagers. This is not an average per sitting, but an average per hand or spin.

You can’t win.

This won’t change.

Ask someone how he or she did after they just left a casino.
They didn’t win.
They didn’t lose.
They broke even.
They lied.

So how can anyone support a superior lifestyle from wagering on football?

Two 4 letter words:
“Home” “Work”.
This doesn’t mean research for 12 hours a day.
It means more.

You would think that the average gambler wins 50% of their games.
They don’t.

You have to win a little more than 53% to show a profit.

Less than 3% can accomplish this feat in a season.

Less than 1% can in a lifetime.

Football wagers are not as much against the house as they are against your gambling contemporaries. You’re playing a market as well as a game.

Use statistically proven angles in the right circumstances and some of

your games now have a 65% chance to convert.