Tennessee vs Purdue Free Pick Sweet 16

Thursday Night at 9:29 PM EST the Volunteers of Tennessee are taking on the Boilermakers of Purdue. The sweet 16 point spread lists Tennessee as 1.5 point favorites and the total is 146. The betting public has been betting more on Tennessee than Purdue with about 65% of the money and 62% of the tickets coming in on the Vols.

Purdue is 25-9 straight up this season. Against the spread they are 19-15. The Boilermakers score 76 PPG on offense and allow 66 PPG. They have lost two of their last five games played, both to Minnesota. Purdue is coming off a big win for them, as they downed Villanova in convincing fashion 87-61.

Tennessee is 31-5 this year. They are 17-17-1 ATS. The Vols score 81 PPG and allow 69. They were ranked #1 for a few weeks before losing a game. The Vols are coming off a win against Iowa in which they won by 6 points, not covering the 7.5 point spread.

These two teams rarely face one another. In fact they have only played each other twice in ten years. The last time they met, two years ago, Tennessee won by three points.

What happened two and ten years ago has little to do with this game so we are not putting much weight into that information.

Strategy

The Vols will look to contain Carsen Edwards. He is the Junior who averaged 23 PPG in Big Ten play this season. Tennessee is loaded with talented players and that includes players that can play Defense. Lamonte Turner will be shouldering much of the defensive responsibilities concerning Carsen Edwards. The Vols can score from inside and outside. But, can they contain this Purdue team that seems really hot right now?

Trends:

• Tennessee is only 13-16 ATS when playing a team with a winning record.
• Tennessee is 4-4 ATS on neutral courts.
• Purdue is 4-3 ATS on neutral court games.

These are not the best trends in the world and leave much open to “gut instinct”. My gut is telling me that the Vols are a more rounded team. This is the same team that was undefeated and ranked #1 halfway through the season.  If they can shut down the Edwards kid, or at least contain him, it should be a win for the Vols. I think that the vols are To protect against a close game, I am paying the extra 10 shekles and taking Tennessee -120 on the money line. You can bet this pick too at an online sportsbooks. Extra: I think that besides Duke, UVA and Gonzaga, Tennessee actually has the best chance to win it all. At +1400 odds to win the championship, I think there is value.