NFL Free Pick: Dolphins vs Texans

Thursday Night Football kicks off another week of the NFL when the Houston Texans host the Miami Dolphins. The Texans have turned their season around after a 0-3 start with four straight wins moving them to the AFC South top spot.

The current line on top sportsbooks has Houston favored by 7.5 points with the over/under on 44.5.

However, to continue that success the Texans must defeat a familiar face as former Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler returns wearing a Dolphins uniform and will lead Miami when the Dolphins visit NRG Stadium.

Osweiler played just one season with Houston despite signing a deal worth $72 million for four years. The Dolphins quarterback has thrown for 619 yards and five TDs in his two starts in place of Ryan Tannehill, who is out injured.

The Texans have won four straight thanks to an aggressive defense that has been opportunistic allowing a combined 36 points over the last three games, while recovering three fumbles and making the same number of interceptions over the last two games, with one going for a touchdown.

Trade rumors started flying last Sunday after DeVante Parker did not play in Miami’s 32-31 loss to Detroit. However, injuries to fellow wide receivers Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson have put Parker back into the mix for the Dolphins.

In the loss to the Lions, Danny Amendola was Osweiler’s favorite target with six receptions for 84 yards plus a touchdown. Kenyan Drake rushed for one touchdown and has tallied 15 receptions out of the backfield over the past three games.

Miami defensive end Cameron Wake forced two fumbles and had two sacks in the Dolphins last game against the Texans.

Houston’s Lamar Miller rushed for over 100 yards for the first time since 2016 in last week 20-7 victory over Jacksonville. Miller will be facing his former teammates as well, as he began his career with the Dolphins.

Houston will look to run the ball early knowing the Dolphins allowed 247 yards rushing in last week’s loss to Detroit. Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson threw one touchdown in last week’s win despite injured ribs and a bruised lung.

Houston is 7-1 overall against Miami including 4-0 at home.

Prediction: Miami has played well with Osweiler under center but will be facing a tough defense in the Texans with NFL sacks leader J.J. Watt and fellow pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney. Houston’s offense is doing just enough to win and will continue that Thursday. Give the points and take the Texans 27-17.

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