NBA Free Pick Golden State vs Houston Game 5

The game is May 24th, 2018 and tips off at 9:00 pm EST. Houston’s overall record is 75-21 and 49-45-2 ATS. Golden State is 68-28 overall and 41-54-1 ATS.

This is turning out to be one heck of a series. Anyone who thought Golden State was just going to mow over Houston like they did all the other teams were dead wrong. After all, Houston was the best team in the NBA this year as far as overall season record.

The spread for game 5 is out and has Golden State -1 at home.  The total is 219.5 points. The betting line was issued at Houston -1 but the public has quickly bet it in the way of Golden State and caused the line to move by two points. Even after the line movement, the public is on the Warriors to the tune of 70% in both tickets and total money (reported at offshore sportsbooks).

The teams matchup very well and if Golden State isn’t shooting in high % they lose. Houston is more able to recover from early bad shots. At home Houston is just 21-27-1 ATS, which is a bad record but that record is mitigated by the fact that GSW’s are only 21-26 ATS away from their home.

I am having a bit of trouble picking the team that will win and cover this game. But after the low scoring game these two had yesterday I get the feeling that they will score a lot of points Thursday. There seems to be a trend when these two play each other:  after they stay under two games in a row, the third game goes over. The last two games have gone under, so is it time for an OVER? It isn’t the best trend line in the world but it is something.

I can see both teams scoring in the 110’s+

Therefore, I like the Over and who cares who wins the game? Enjoy it and cheer for every made bucket.