NCAA Basketball Championship Free Picks

Tonight is the national championship game for men’s collegiate basketball. Villanova takes on Michigan in what looks to be a great matchup. Two different styles of play will be featured on the hard court tonight. Michigan plays a more ball control game consisting of solid defense and strong inside play. Villanova is a scoring machine and likes to run, get down court and take shots on goal as quick as possible. It’s guards are the top scorers on the team. That tells you everything you need to know about their offense. The spread for this game has Villanova favored by 7 points and the total is 145. Spread, time and rotation numbers are:

Time: 9:20 EST
TV: TBS and live stream

601 Michigan +7
602 Villanova -7
Total 145

The line was issued at Villanova -5.5 and we felt at the time it was a little high, but the line would end up moving even higher. Within an hour of posting, the line moved to 6.5 and now is pretty well locked in at 7. The total was 147.5 , and was bet down to 144.5 almost immediately and has now rebounded a little to 145 even.

Public Betting Trend

We checked in with our friends at the top sportsbooks and have found that there is some lopsided wagering which we always love for big games. There have been three games this tournament where the public action was heavily lopsided on a game featuring two well-known teams. The public is 0-3 on those games and tonight is appearing to be a double whammy as both the total and side are lopsided on tickets and cash.

Villanova -7 (75% cash, 70% tickets)
Over 145 (73% cash, 74% tickets)

Villanova up to 7-pt favorites vs Michigan. 69% of the bettors are on Nova. Odds> https://tinyurl.com/y89u8fbz

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) April 2, 2018

Raw Numbers Betting Matchup

Michigan comes into this game with a 33-7 record overall and is 25-13-1 against the spread. They score 74 PPG and allow just 63. They are on an impressive 14 game win streak that started back on February 11th. They are 11-3 ATS in that fourteen game span.

Villanova is 35-4 straight up and 26-12-1 ATS. They score 86 PPG on offense and allow 70 PPG. They are currently on a ten game win streak.

The last time these two squared off against one another was in 2014 and Villanova won 60-50. The spread was Villanova -4.5 and the total was 133. The game was four years ago so it barely factors into tonight’s matchup.

Conclusion

Three factors make betting Michigan +7 a very strong choice:

1. Public heavy on Villanova for tickets and money (ATP – against the public play)
2. Spread too high (value play)
3. Michigan 14 game win streak

If you must bet the total I think the Under has value but Michigan plus the seven is the official pick here.