Michigan State vs Purdue Basketball Free Pick

Saturday – February 10, 2018 at 4:00 PM EST – No. 3 Purdue is in East Lansing, Michigan to take on No. 4 Michigan State in the highest rated matchup of the day. This is a game that will affect conference and national rankings.

The point spread has been issued at Michigan State -3 and the total is 148.

Purdue limps into this game after losing a tough one at home to Ohio State on Wednesday. Purdue was favored by 10 points in that game. Before the disappointing loss Purdue had won the previous 19 games they played. That streak moved them up the rankings all the way to number 3, behind Villanova and Virginia. Purdue is 23-3 and 15-11 against the spread (ATS).

Michigan State has won their last seven games. Their last defeat came against Michigan on January 13th. Michigan State is also 23-3 and is 13-12-1 ATS.

Purdue scores 83 PPG while allowing only 64 PPG. MSU scored 83 PPG as well and allows 65 PPG. As you can see the numbers are very similar.

Head to Head

The head to head ten game sample comparison favors Michigan State. In the last ten games MSU is 7-3 SU against Purdue. They are 6-4 against Purdue ATS. However, Purdue owns them in the last two games they have played. Last February, Purdue beat MSU 80-63 and just a month before that they beat them 84-73.

Purdue has a great offensive lineup. Four of the starting five are averaging in double figures. Carson and Vincent Edwards will be jacking threes and average around 42% each on the season from the arch. Seven footer Isaac Haas will be mixing it up in the middle. He averages 14 point and 5 rebounds per game. You can bet that MSU will be trying to shut him down as best they can and make the guards and forwards shoot from the perimeter.

Michigan State has five players who average double digits on offense. They have two players that average 7 rebounds per game. Both teams are heavily dependent on their starting five players but have quality players on the bench as well.

Betting Trends

Purdue is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games. Purdue is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Purdue’s last 11 games. Purdue is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Purdue’s last 5 games on the road. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State. Purdue is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Michigan State.

Michigan State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games. The total has gone OVER in 11 of Michigan State’s last 16 games.

Conclusion

The trends seem to point both ways on this one. MSU and Purdue haven’t covered in their last five games. Before Purdue’s loss on Wednesday, they had won 19 in a row. If they hadn’t lost that game I have a feeling they may have been slightly favored in this game and I think that perhaps that loss woke them up a little. I have three picks for this game. I like Purdue +3. I like Purdue moneyline +135 and I like the OVER 148. The game will be close but I can see MSU having to foul at the end to have a chance to win and Purdue pulls off the big road win.

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