Kentucky vs Tennessee Free Pick
Scott Morris | February 6, 2018
College basketball has a full slate tonight and we are previewing the top matchup. Two ranked teams will face off at 7:00 pm EST. (15) Tennessee is at (24) Kentucky for an SEC basketball battle. Kentucky is favored by 1.5 points. The total is 141.5 points.
These teams are very similar as far as record and scoring goes. Tennessee is 17-5 and Kentucky is 17-6 straight up. Against the spread Tennessee is superior at 13-7 while Kentucky is just 10-13. Offensively both teams score right about 77 PPG. Defensively the advantage goes to Tennessee. They allow 67 points and Kentucky allows 70 PPG. These stats basically explain where the spread came from. On a neutral court, Tennessee would be favored by 1.5 points. But the 3 point advantage of being in Kentucky makes them favored by a point and half.
Head to Head
The last ten games played Kentucky has the advantage at 6-4 SU. But, Tennessee has the advantage when it comes to the point spread. Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee. But, Kentucky is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing Tennessee. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Kentucky’s last 17 games when playing Tennessee.
John Calipari, Kentucky’s head coach, has been looking at this game as being very important to his team’s season. He has even tweeted the fans on how much the team needs their support:
We need you Tuesday to be at your best from the tip to the finish. If we’re going good, ride it and push us to make the lead unbearable. If we’re struggling some, encourage us and bring us back. The last eight minutes of the game, do not sit down! We need you more than ever now!
— John Calipari (@UKCoachCalipari) February 4, 2018
Betting Public
The public is currently on Kentucky a bit more than Tennessee. Sportsbooks are reporting 61% of the tickets and money are on The Wildcats. This is not a clear ATP (against the public) play though and the numbers could change a great deal between now and tip-off.
Conclusion
Tennessee is playing very well right now. The are coming off very convincing wins against Mississippi, LSU, Iowa State, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Their last loss was to Missouri on the 17th of January. Kentucky is coming off a fresh loss to that same Missouri team. Kentucky did have a huge win just ten days ago at West Virginia. WVU is a team that was ranked #19.
You can see why this is will be a tough game for both teams. In my mind the Volunteers of Tennessee are on a win streak and are playing very strong. I can see them going into Kentucky and winning the game on the last shot. The 1.5 points they are getting makes me feel even just a little bit better about taking Tennessee on the road. The total (Over/Under) has no clear angle in my opinion. It could land on either side of it.
