NFL Free Pick Indianapolis at Baltimore

Saturday, December 23, 2017

M&T Bank Stadium

The Indianapolis Colts travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, December 23, 2017. The opening line for this game has Baltimore as 13 point favorites. The over/under has been set at 41. The Colts have an ATS record of 6-8-0 while their over/under record is 6-8-0. The Ravens have an over/under record of 8-6-0 and they are 8-5-1 against the spread.

Indianapolis Colts Trends

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-8-0 against the over/under

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-8-0 against the spread

Baltimore Ravens Trends

The Baltimore Ravens are 8-6-0 against the over/under

The Baltimore Ravens are 8-5-1 against the spread

Indianapolis Colts Injuries

12/18/17 C Ryan Kelly Concussion IR
12/18/17 LB Jon Bostic Knee IR
12/14/17 TE Brandon Williams Concussion left last game, is “?” Saturday vs Baltimore
12/14/17 TE Darrell Daniels Hamstring is “?” Saturday vs Baltimore
12/14/17 T Denzelle Good Knee left last game, is “?” Saturday vs Baltimore
12/14/17 WR Donte Moncrief Ankle is “?” Saturday vs Baltimore
12/14/17 WR T.Y. Hilton Hand injured last game, is “?” Saturday vs Baltimore
12/14/17 CB Nate Hairston Undisclosed is “?” Saturday vs Baltimore
12/14/17 CB Rashaan Melvin Hand is “?” Saturday vs Baltimore
12/14/17 LB Jeremiah George Neck left last game, is “?” Saturday vs Baltimore
12/05/17 LB John Simon Shoulder IR
12/04/17 DB Pierre Desir Shoulder IR
11/30/17 TE Erik Swoope Undisclosed IR
11/08/17 DT Henry Anderson Throat IR
11/07/17 WR Quan Bray Undisclosed IR
11/02/17 QB Andrew Luck Shoulder IR
10/23/17 S Malik Hooker Knee IR
10/18/17 RB Robert Turbin Wrist IR
10/14/17 T Jack Mewhort Knee IR
10/04/17 G Deyshawn Bond Quad IR

Baltimore Ravens Injuries

12/18/17 DT Carl Davis Leg injured last game, is doubtful Saturday vs Indianapolis
12/18/17 WR Jeremy Maclin Knee left last game, is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs Indianapolis
12/03/17 CB Jimmy Smith Achilles is out for season
09/27/17 DE Brent Urban Foot IR
09/20/17 LB Bam Bradley ACL IR
09/20/17 G Marshal Yanda Ankle IR
09/16/17 CB Sheldon Price Concussion IR
09/04/17 G Alex Lewis Shoulder IR
09/04/17 TE Crockett Gillmore MCL IR
09/04/17 CB Tavon Young ACL IR
08/28/17 LB Albert McClellan ACL IR
07/25/17 RB Kenneth Dixon Knee IR
07/02/17 TE Darren Waller Suspension out for season

Offensive Statistics

The Indianapolis Colts are 31st in the NFL in points scored with 225. They have run 872 plays this season for 4,007 yards, which ranks them 31st in the league in total offense. The Colts average 4.6 yards per play, which is 32nd in the National Football League. As a team they have accumulated a total of 230 1st downs this year, placing them 31st overall as an offensive unit. On the ground Indianapolis has run for 1,422 yards as a team, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. They’ve run 391 times, averaging 3.6 yards per carry as a rushing unit. The Colts have been penalized on offense 86 times for 740 yards so far this season, which has them 23rd in the league in penalties. Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 2,769 yards this season. He has completed 245 passes on 411 attempts for a completion percentage of 59.6%. His quarterback rating is 81.7. He averages 6.7 yards per pass attempt and 11.3 yards per completion.

Defensive Statistics

Indianapolis is 31st in the league in points allowed on defense with 368. They have surrendered a total of 5,341 yards on D, which is 30th in the NFL. The Colts are ranked 30th in yards per play allowed with 5.9. Their pass defense has given up 7.6 net yards per pass attempt, placing them 32nd in the league as a unit. Opposing offenses have completed 277 passes on 451 attempts against the Indianapolis Colts defense this season, placing them 5th and 3rd in the National Football League. The Indianapolis pass defense has also given up a total of 3,600 yards through the air, which is 30th overall in total pass defense. Their rushing defense has allowed 428 attempts for 1,741 yards this year, putting them in 29th place in the league against the run. The Colts have committed 90 penalties for 763 yards on the defensive side of the ball this season. That ranks them 13th in the NFL. They’ve given up a score on 39.1% of possessions on defense, which is 29th in the league.

Special Teams Stats

Indianapolis is ranked 26th in the league in punt returns with 23. They’ve accumulated 101 punt return yards and average 4.4 yards per return, which is 32nd in the NFL. Their longest punt return so far this year is 20 yards. They have returned 25 kicks for 551 yards on special teams, ranking 22nd in kick return yardage. The Colts average 22 yards per kick return and have a long of 60 yards this year. They are 32nd in the league in all-purpose yards with 4,971. The Indianapolis Colts have attempted 27 field goals this season and made 24, which is 16th in the National Football League. Their kickers have a field goal percentage of 88.9%. Indianapolis Colts kickers have made 91% of their extra points, going 19 for 21 this year. Their punters have totaled 3,456 yards on 78 punts, averaging 44.3 yards per punt. That places them 23rd in the NFL in punting average.

Offensive Statistics

The Baltimore Ravens have run for 1,635 yards as a unit, which ranks 12th in the league. They’ve run 402 times, averaging 4.1 yards per rush as a unit. The Ravens have been penalized on offense 81 times for 677 yards so far this year, which has them 29th in the NFL in penalties. They are 8th in the National Football League in points scored with 345. They have run 909 plays this year for 4,251 yards, which ranks them 27th in the NFL in total offense. The Ravens average 4.7 yards per play, which is 31st in the league. As a team they have accumulated a total of 269 1st downs this season, ranking them 19th overall as an offensive unit. Joe Flacco has completed 298 throws while attempting 464 passes for a completion percentage of 64.2%. He has passed for 2,701 yards this year. He averages 9.1 yards per completion and 5.8 yards per pass attempt. His quarterback rating this season is 79.1.

Defensive Statistics

The Ravens rush defense has given up 381 attempts for 1,541 yards this season, putting them in 14th place in the NFL against the run. They have had 88 penalties for 728 yards on defense this year. That places them 4th in the league. They’ve allowed a score on 29.2% of possessions on defense, which is 3rd in the NFL. Baltimore is 4th in the NFL in points surrendered on defense with 256. They have given up a total of 4,546 yards on D, which is 10th in the league. The Ravens are 4th in yards per play allowed with 5. Their pass defense has allowed 5.7 net yards per pass attempt, ranking them 5th in the National Football League. Opponent offenses have completed 294 throws on 492 attempts against the Baltimore Ravens defense this season, ranking them 15th and 24th in the league. The Ravens pass defense has also surrendered a total of 3,005 yards in the air, which is 9th overall in total pass defense.

Special Teams Stats

The Baltimore Ravens have tried 32 field goals this season and made 29, which is 6th in the league. Their kickers have a FG percentage of 90.6%. Baltimore kickers have made 100% of their extra points, going 34 for 34 this season. Their punters have accumulated 3,361 yards on 74 punts, averaging 45.4 yards per punt. That ranks them 13th in the NFL in punting average. Baltimore is 20th in the NFL in punt returns with 25. They’ve totaled 280 punt return yards and are averaging 11.2 yards per return, which is 2nd in the league. Their longest punt return this season is 77 yards. They have returned 28 kicks for 739 yards on special teams, placing them 6th in kick return yardage. The Ravens average 26.4 yards per kick return and have a long of 96 yards this season. They are 25th in the National Football League in all-purpose yards with 5,449.

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Robert Ferringo’s Pick – Take #101 Indianapolis (+13.5) over Baltimore (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 23)

If you want to make money betting on sports sometimes you have to plug your nose and put your money down on an ugly dog. Indianapolis is a team that absolutely no one wants to bet on right now. And that is why the Colts have value in this spot. The Ravens are 8-6 and in a “must-win” situation as they attempt to claw their way into the playoffs. But this is a lot of points for the Ravens and the No. 27 offense in the NFL to clear. The Colts have lost five straight games. But if you look closer you will see that only one of their losses was by more than two touchdowns. The books have been overvaluing the Colts, posting them as three-point underdogs in three of their last four games. No, they couldn’t cover those numbers. But this spread is one of the largest of the entire NFL season. And I think that this team is still playing hard enough to beat this number. The Colts are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Ravens and they are 5-1 in their last six trips to Baltimore. Baltimore is coming off a blowout win over the lowly Browns, but they are just 4-9 ATS in a game following a win of 14 or more points. I think that Baltimore is good enough to grind out a win in this game. But I haven’t seen anything from this year’s Ravens team to make me think that they should be laying out two touchdowns. I think Indianapolis will do just enough to keep this game close and I can see them losing by a touchdown. Take the points in this one.

Robert Ferringo is one of the most well-known and accomplished handicappers in the industry. He has over 12 years of experience and has been featured on ESPN, CBS Sports, Esquire Magazine, Football Outsiders and several other prominent publications. Robert is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Basketball Writers Association of America and is a well-respected writer along with being an advisor. You can find him exclusively at Doc’s Sports.