Betting Angles and Trends Worth Considering for NFL Week 8
Scott Morris | October 25, 2017
Through the first seven games of the NFL season both the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns are winless. The news is bad for fans of each team, but potentially good for NFL bettors.
It might be time to take the points with both teams. Over the last 27 NFL seasons, teams that are winless entering Week 8 of the NFL regular season are 58-36-4 against the spread, as underdogs, which represents a 62% cover rate.
Cleveland is currently getting 9.5 points against the Minnesota Vikings in a game to be played in London. San Francisco is a road dog getting 12.5 points as they travel cross country to face the red hot Philadelphia Eagles.
Taking both winless dogs this week could pay off. Winless teams versus teams with a record above .500 are an impressive 37-12-1 ATS which is a cover rate of 74%. Philadelphia has the best record in the NFL at 6-1, while the Vikings are leading the NFC North with a record of 5-2.
San Francisco should bounce back from their poor performance last weekend against Dallas where they lost 40-10. Winless teams that the previous week lost by over four touchdowns have returned the next week as underdogs to go 8-1-2 ATS since 1990.
The Kansas City Chiefs won their first five games of the season, but since have lost two straight falling to Pittsburgh 19-13 and Oakland 31-30.
The Chiefs might be a team to fade this week. Kansas City is 7.5-point chalk at home against Denver, but this situation has not been good to head coach Andy Reid.
Reid, including his time as head coach with the Eagles, is 6-12 straight up while 4-15 ATS playing at home versus division opponents while on a losing skid of two games or less. During that run, five times teams under Reid have been 4-point or higher chalk, but went 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS.
The time might be right to fade the Chiefs.
One more to consider, during Week 7 three teams were shutout – Denver, Indianapolis and Arizona. Dating back to 1990, this has happened during just six other weeks in regular season games.
However, teams that were shutout during Week 7 over that period turned around in Week 8 to go 10-3 ATS.
