Constructing the Perfect NFL Teaser

NFL teasers are popular bets and, actually, the most popular of all teasers. Too many bettors haphazardly put an NFL teaser bet together and then wonder why it doesn’t cash. With the popularity of the Wong teaser, sportsbooks, of course, caught on and began to react accordingly. Now, it’s a bit more difficult, but there are still plenty of great teaser options out there if you know where to look.

First, we’ll make sure we understand the teaser bet and how it works. We’ll explain the popular Wong teaser and how sportsbooks protect themselves against teaser bets. Finally, we’ll identify strategies for putting together good teaser bets and avoiding bad ones.

 

The Teaser

A teaser bet is a parlay that offers the bettor the opportunity to shift a point spread in the bettor’s favor. An NFL teaser, then, is one that consists of at least two separate bets that are wagered as a single bet. There are some benefits to NFL teasers, the biggest being better odds.

For example, we can take a few games from this weekend’s NFL card. Dallas is at New Orleans and Pittsburgh is at Denver. Each of these games actually fit into a viable NFL teaser strategy. More on that later. Here are the lines and odds for each game.

Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-104)

New Orleans Saints +6.5 (-118)

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-115)

Denver Broncos +2.5 (-105)

If we bet these games individually, we might bet $104 on Dallas to cover and if the Cowboys win by seven or more we would win $100. We can also wager $105 on Denver to lose by two or less (or win outright) and if the Broncos do so, we win another $100.

Instead, we could pair these two games together and adjust the point spreads in our favor. Instead of Dallas at -6.5 and having to win by seven or more, we can adjust the spread by six points (the most common teaser adjustment is six points). Now, we get Dallas -0.5 and the Cowboys only have to win by one point or more.

The same goes for Denver. We adjust the spread up to +8.5. Now, the Broncos only have to lose by eight points or less (or win outright). Better yet, instead of wagering $209 total, we only need to shell out $100 and we’ll get some pretty decent odds. In many cases, bettors can find two-team, six-point teasers at positive odds. 

 

The Wong Teaser

If you are unfamiliar with Stanford Wong, check him out. Wong is the pen name of John Ferguson, a blackjack expert who also wrote a book titled Sharp Sports Betting in 2000. In that book, Wong spent a good deal of time on NFL teasers. The gist of it is this.

There is a ton of value if you can adjust a point spread to cover 3-, 4-, 6-, and 7-point scoring margins. More NFL games end with a scoring margin of 3 points than any other. Games that end with scoring margins of 3, 4, 6, and 7 account for 35 percent of all NFL games. If you can adjust an underdog’s spread to +8.5, there’s a little over a 1-in-3 chance that the dog will cover.

Now, Wong used a ton of math to prove his points, but the idea of a Wong teaser was essentially this. Bettors should look for big NFL favorites and short NFL underdogs to tease. That means favorites of -6.5 to -8.5 and underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 were very good candidates for an NFL teaser. 

Using the 6-point adjustment, those favorites then became -0.5 to -2.5 favorites and the dogs became +7.5 to +8.5 underdogs. Initially, the Wong teaser caught on and bettors had great success. Then, as usual, sportsbooks got smart.

 

How Sportsbooks Protect Against Teasers

Sportsbooks are in business to make money. They do everything in their power to reduce and minimize risk. The success of Wong teasers took advantage of the point spreads we just identified in the previous section. Sportsbooks got smart. They began to limit the number of times they landed on -6.5 or +2.5.

The books also started to short the price on teasers. Instead of a two-team teaser paying out plus-money or even-money odds, the going rate is typically around -120 on 6-point teasers. You’ll find some books pricing that same two-team, six-point teaser at -150. 

The other thing sportsbooks will do is show you something that looks pretty weird. You might see a game listed at a sportsbook with a 9.0-point spread and some different juice. Take the following for example.

Baltimore Ravens -9.0 (+105)

Las Vegas Raiders +9.0 (-115)

Why does a sportsbook do that? Why isn’t the juice closer to the standard -110? It’s all about protecting against teasers. The sportsbook wants you to tease this bet at +9.0 instead of +8.5 or +7.5 They can protect themselves by having the bettor land on 3.0, which results in a push. Many sportsbooks identify a push as a loss when it comes to teaser betting.

 

Creating Winning NFL Teasers

Hopefully, you now understand the basics of an NFL teaser bet. It is imperative that you know the rules concerning teasers at the sportsbook you will place the bet. More sportsbooks now will treat a push as a loss and one loss ruins a teaser. 

Knowing that sportsbooks have caught on and try to protect against teaser bets, we have to look for certain situations where we can gain the advantage. That means that like Wong, we should stick to teasing favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5.

One of the most important NFL teaser rules is this. Do not tease through zero. Don’t take a -3 favorite and make it a +3 underdog because you are paying for a result that is unlikely. How many NFL games end with a scoring margin of 0 points? Since overtime was introduced in 1974, only 29 games have ended in a tie. That’s a very small percentage of the total number of games over the last 50 years. 

It may also make sense to only tease games with totals of 49 or less. Games with higher totals can have more variance in scoring. A game that ends with 41 points (more NFL games end with 41 total points scored than any other number) is much more likely to end with a scoring margin of 3, 4, 6, or 7 points. That adds value to playing a teaser.

The other thing or teaser bettors to consider is playing the teaser on the road team. It’s well-known how sportsbooks price home teams in the NFL. There is data that suggests teaser hit rates are higher when playing road teams, given the diminishing effect of home field advantage in the NFL. 

 

Your Sportsbook Advisor Teaser Guide

To sum it all up, those interested in teaser bets should do the following.

1. Only tease NFL point spreads. Stay away from totals and other sports.
2. Look for favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5.
3. Give preference to games with totals of 49 or lower.
4. Also give preference to road teams.
5. Make sure you understand the sportsbook’s rules concerning a push.
6. Try to get odds of -120 or better.
7. Don’t forget…bet responsibly!